"1011 Insider Whale" Agent: Trump's "48-Hour Ultimatum" May Trigger Sharp Increase in Oil Market Volatility, Risk of Conflict Escalation Rises

Odaily News, Garrett Jin, the agent for the "1011 Insider Whale," posted on the X platform stating that Trump has issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran, demanding full restoration of passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The situation has clearly escalated. He summarized that this move will bring three key impacts: First, the diplomatic buffer has been broken, potentially ending the low-key negotiation path between Iran and Japan regarding ship-by-ship passage. Second, the nature of the conflict is escalating; if strikes expand to civilian infrastructure such as power facilities, it will strengthen Iran's stance and increase the probability of a prolonged war. Third, oil market volatility is surging, and market mismatches are intensifying. The crude oil volatility index OVX has risen to 93, while the CBOE Volatility Index VIX is around 24, with a ratio close to 4 times, indicating that oil market risks far exceed the pricing in the stock market. Overall, oil prices and market volatility may continue to rise, and expectations for the duration of the conflict are being extended.