Investors are concerned that the Middle East conflict could reignite inflation, and the market no longer fully bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this year

Odaily News Bond traders are no longer fully pricing in expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in 2026. Interest rate swaps linked to Fed policy meeting dates show that traders on Thursday anticipated only 24 basis points of rate cuts this year, less than a full 25-basis-point cut, compared to expectations of around 30 basis points on Wednesday evening. This shift occurred amid a continued decline in U.S. Treasury bonds, with the yield on the two-year Treasury note, which is most sensitive to Fed policy changes, rising by 4 basis points to near 3.70%. U.S. Treasuries have faced pressure this week as investors worry that the Middle East conflict will continue to push up energy prices, thereby reigniting inflation. (Jin10)