Analysis: If the U.S.-Iran Conflict Persists for Months, War Spending and Debt Expansion Could Benefit Bitcoin

Odaily News Macro strategist Mark Connors stated that if the conflict between the United States and Iran persists for months, the increased fiscal spending, debt expansion, and lower interest rates resulting from the war could create a favorable environment for Bitcoin. Connors pointed out that wars typically require financing through the issuance of more government bonds, which increases the supply of U.S. dollars in the financial system, thereby devaluing existing currency and benefiting non-dollar assets like Bitcoin.

Since mid-2025, the annualized growth rate of U.S. federal debt has been approximately 14%. If this trend continues, the debt scale may continue to grow year-on-year by about 15%. He believes this sustained debt expansion is essentially a form of "monetary dilution," which has historically tended to benefit Bitcoin's performance. Since the U.S. first launched strikes against Iran, the price of Bitcoin has risen by approximately 3.6%. As U.S. government debt increases and relies more on short-term Treasury financing, policymakers may be more inclined to lower interest rates in the future to reduce interest burdens. In an environment of "falling interest rates + ongoing debt expansion," liquidity typically improves, which has historically been a strong macro backdrop for Bitcoin. (CoinDesk)