WSJ: Polymarket Bettors Expect Iranian Regime Not to Collapse Rapidly

Odaily News Polymarket traders have lowered their bets on regime change in Iran. According to data from the crypto prediction market, the probability of the Iranian regime collapsing by March 31 is currently holding above 20%, down from around 40% on Saturday following the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei in an airstrike. Trading volume for this regime collapse contract has now exceeded $14 million. Furthermore, contracts with later expiration dates indicate a 42% probability of regime collapse by June 30 and a 50% probability by year-end, with trading volumes for these contracts reaching $5 million and $7 million, respectively. Recently, Polymarket and its competitor Kalshi have sparked controversy due to bets involving U.S. attacks on Iran and the downfall of Ayatollah Khamenei. (WSJ)