Bitwise: Bitcoin Investors Need to Hold for at Least 3 Years to Avoid Losses, Nearly 50% Probability of Loss for Short-Term Trading

Odaily According to price data analysis covering the period from July 17, 2010, to February 11, 2026, by digital asset management firm Bitwise Asset Management, the historical probability of investors incurring losses when holding Bitcoin for at least three years is only 0.70%. The longer the holding period, the lower the risk of loss. If investors hold Bitcoin for 5 years, the probability of loss drops to 0.2%, and for 10 years, it becomes 0%. In contrast, investors with holding periods of less than three years face higher risks. Specifically: the probability of intraday buyers experiencing unrealized losses is 47.1%, for those holding for one week it's 44.7%, for one month it's 43.2%, and even for one year, the probability of loss remains at 24.3%. Bitwise points out that the current Bitcoin price is around $65,000, representing a decline of approximately 50% from the high in October 2025. However, the realized price for the three-to-five-year holding cohort is about $34,780, indicating that investors within this range are still in a state of approximately 90% unrealized profit. (Cointelegraph)