Citizens Bank: Prediction Market Annual Revenue Could Reach $10 Billion by 2030

Odaily According to a recent report by U.S.-based Citizens Bank, prediction markets are experiencing rapid growth. The current annualized revenue for the industry has already surpassed $3 billion and is projected to reach $10 billion by 2030, potentially establishing itself as a new asset class.

The report indicates that trading volume in prediction markets continues to rise. Market turnover in January this year increased by over 40% compared to December, and February maintained a similar level, despite the typical expectation of a decline after the conclusion of traditional sports seasons. Analysis suggests this trend reflects the transformation of prediction markets from niche gambling tools into mature financial markets.

Citizens Bank believes that the key drivers of industry growth are increasing trading volume, more sophisticated market structures, and the initial participation of institutional investors. Currently, some institutions have begun entering the market as data users and liquidity providers, laying the groundwork for broader institutional adoption.

Prediction markets allow traders to price and hedge risks associated with discrete events such as election outcomes, interest rate decisions, or merger approvals. Compared to proxy instruments like index futures or options, they can reduce basis risk and provide real-time probability signals.

Analysts point out that the development path of prediction markets resembles that of early derivatives markets and the digital asset industry, transitioning from retail-dominated liquidity to participation by market makers and institutional capital. Currently, representative platforms include the regulated event contract exchange Kalshi and the decentralized prediction market Polymarket, with the industry as a whole gradually moving towards integration with the mainstream financial system.