对冲基金一季度解读：每个人都在抛软件，买芯片
- Key Takeaway: In the first quarter of 2025, US hedge funds and large mutual funds reached a rare consensus within the tech sector, systematically selling software stocks and heavily rotating into the semiconductor space. This pushed the weight of semiconductors in hedge fund long portfolios to an all-time high, while market long-short dynamics intensified.
- Key Elements:
- The weight of semiconductors in hedge fund long portfolios hit a record high, while software weight fell to its lowest since 2019; mutual fund software holdings dropped to their lowest since 2012.
- Hedge funds posted a 7% return in Q1, but only 30% of large mutual funds outperformed their benchmarks. Hedge fund net leverage rebounded to near one-year highs, while the short ratio on the S&P 500 rose to 3%, the highest since 2011.
- At the individual stock level, Microsoft became one of the most net-sold stocks by both institutional types in the quarter. Hedge funds increased net positions in LRCX, AMAT, and ASML, while mutual funds added to INTC and SITM.
- Strategy divergence: Hedge funds quickly increased exposure in Q2, while mutual funds chose to raise their cash allocation from a historical low of 1.1% to 1.4%, though still at extremely low levels.
- Sector Consensus and Divergence: Both institution types were overweight in Industrials and underweight in Information Technology, but their rebalancing directions diverged. Hedge funds significantly increased their net tilt toward Information Technology, while mutual funds reduced theirs.
Original Author: Zhao Ying
Original Source: Wall Street CN
In the first quarter, US hedge funds and large mutual funds reached a rare consensus: selling software and flooding into semiconductors, pushing semiconductor long weights to an all-time high.
According to Goldman Sachs' latest "Hedge Fund Trend Monitor" and "Mutual Fund Fundamentals" reports, this analysis covers 1,059 hedge funds (with total stock holdings of $4.6 trillion) and 509 large active mutual funds (with equity assets of $3.9 trillion).
The report shows that hedge funds have achieved a 7% return year-to-date, while only 30% of large mutual funds have outperformed their benchmarks, below the historical average of 37% since 2007.
US first-quarter 13F holdings data reveals a clear market consensus: hedge funds and mutual funds are simultaneously selling software stocks and moving into the semiconductor sector. The scale of this rotation is so significant that it has pushed the weight of semiconductors in hedge fund long portfolios to an all-time high.
Regarding position structure, hedge fund net leverage has rebounded to the 85th percentile of the past five years, reaching a high level for the last year. Meanwhile, the average short-selling ratio of S&P 500 constituents has risen to 3% of market capitalization, the highest level since 2011, indicating that long-short betting in the market is heating up simultaneously.
Semiconductor Positions Hit Record High, Software Faces Systematic Reduction
The structural rotation within the technology sector is the most prominent theme of this quarter.
Goldman Sachs data shows that the weight of semiconductors in hedge fund long portfolios has reached its highest level on record, while the weight of software has fallen to its lowest since 2019. On the mutual fund side, software holdings have dropped to their lowest levels since 2012. Excluding Microsoft, mutual funds' overweight allocation to semiconductors relative to software is also the largest since 2012.
At the individual stock level, Microsoft (MSFT) was among the stocks most net-sold by hedge funds and mutual funds last quarter. Mutual funds broadly reduced their holdings in the rest of the "Magnificent Seven." Although hedge funds reduced holdings in most of the "Magnificent Seven," they achieved net increases in META and AAPL.
Regarding individual semiconductor stocks, hedge funds added net positions in LRCX, AMAT, and ASML; mutual funds added net positions in INTC and SITM.
Leverage and Cash: Hedge Funds Aggressive, Mutual Funds Conservative
Facing rising geopolitical tensions in the first quarter, the two types of institutions adopted clearly divergent strategies.
Hedge funds initially cut net leverage but quickly added positions following the market rebound in the second quarter, pushing net exposure back to near one-year highs. Gross leverage remains relatively high compared to historical levels.
Mutual funds, on the other hand, chose to increase cash allocations, raising the cash-to-assets ratio from a historical low of 1.1% at the beginning of 2026 to 1.4% in early April.
Nevertheless, this level is still extremely low historically, indicating that mutual funds have not significantly withdrawn from equity markets overall.
B2B Sector Consensus and Divergence: Overweight Industrials, Tech Divergence
In terms of sector allocation, the two types of institutions show high consensus, but with notable exceptions. Both hedge funds and mutual funds overweight the industrial sector and underweight the information technology sector, but their adjustment directions are completely opposite.
In the first quarter, hedge funds increased their net tilt towards information technology by 853 basis points, the largest single-quarter change on record for the sector, while reducing their net tilt towards industrials by 297 basis points.
Mutual funds operated in the opposite direction, increasing their industrial exposure by 24 basis points and cutting information technology exposure by 20 basis points.
The two sectors with the most pronounced divergence are financials and consumer discretionary: mutual funds overweight financials while hedge funds underweight them; hedge funds overweight consumer discretionary while mutual funds underweight it.
Four "Common Favorites" Outperform the Broader Market Year-to-Date
This quarter, Goldman Sachs screened out four "common favorite" stocks that appear on both the Hedge Fund VIP List (GSTHHVIP) and the Mutual Fund Overweight List (GSTHMFOW): Boeing (BA), Mastercard (MA), Marvell Technology (MRVL), and Visa (V). Among them, MRVL is a new entrant this quarter, while Citigroup (C) and Vertiv (VRT) have exited the list.
These four stocks have achieved a 10% return year-to-date, outperforming the equal-weight S&P 500 index by 3 percentage points.
Looking at a longer timeframe, since 2013, the "Common Favorite" portfolio has generated an annualized return of 16%, but with a standard deviation as high as 22%, indicating significantly high volatility. Currently, the median stock in this portfolio has a price-to-earnings ratio of 34 times, a notable premium compared to the median S&P 500 stock's 18 times.
It is worth noting that all of the "Magnificent Seven" were selected for the Hedge Fund VIP list, but all were underweighted by mutual funds, creating a stark contrast in the attitudes of the two types of institutions towards this core asset class.
