Wintermute: The Price Level Ethereum Really Needs to Watch is Around $1,600

Odaily News Wintermute published an article stating that since the liquidation crisis two weeks ago, Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to break through the $70,000 level. The lack of rebound buying is more telling than the price range itself. Price action is choppy, liquidity is thin, the range is narrow, and there is a lack of clear support. Ethereum fell below $1,900 this week, a level that holds more psychological significance than technical importance. The price level Ethereum really needs to watch is around $1,600.

Despite price stabilization, institutional demand does not seem to have recovered, which was clearly observed in the previous $85,000 to $95,000 price range. The derivatives market lacks directional conviction and demand. Basis is at multi-month lows, put skew is high and rising, and open interest has been declining since October.

During trading sessions, fund flows favored selling activity, but an interesting signal emerged mid-week: high-net-worth individuals briefly showed interest in some altcoins. This was a small but notable spark of confidence in an overall defensive market environment, but it faded quickly.

The market experienced renewed volatility in the latter half of the week, with willingness to enter the market weakening, indicating that the market is not yet ready to reward early positioning. Current trading activity remains dominated by risk aversion rather than strong conviction.