Analyst: Strong Non-Farm Payrolls Likely to Suppress Probability of Rate Cuts in First Half, But It's Still Too Early to Completely Rule Them Out

Odaily News According to Investinglive analyst Justin Low, all eyes are on the non-farm payrolls data, with market participants waiting for the news to react. Currently, traders expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by a cumulative total of about 60 basis points this year, and have already priced in the next 25 basis point rate cut for the June meeting. The weak consumer picture presented yesterday naturally reinforced this expectation. If today's non-farm payrolls data is strong and the unemployment rate remains stable, it would indicate that the Fed may keep interest rates unchanged for a longer period. In an optimistic scenario, this could significantly reduce the risk of rate cuts in the first half of the year. However, given the mixed signals from yesterday's US consumer data, it is still too early to completely rule out the possibility of further rate cuts in June or July. (Jin10)