CertiK: Prediction Market Trading Volume to Reach $63.5 Billion in 2025, Concentrated Exposure of Security and Compliance Risks

Odaily News CertiK's "2026 Skynet Prediction Market Report" indicates that the prediction market's trading volume grew to $63.5 billion in 2025, achieving a 4-fold increase, with Kalshi, Polymarket, and Opinion emerging as the dominant platforms. However, this scale growth has also introduced new risks, including oracle vulnerabilities, administrator key misuse, and Web2.5 architecture issues.

The report notes that prediction markets have been deemed legal financial products in the United States through a CFTC ruling, but they are banned in several EU countries as unauthorized gambling. Furthermore, regulatory differences across U.S. states may further complicate compliance. In December 2025, a security incident involving Polymarket's third-party verification provider exposed centralized failure points within hybrid Web2/Web3 architectures. The research also estimates that during peak airdrop periods, artificial trading volume on some platforms reached 60%, severely distorting liquidity metrics.

CertiK predicts that the prediction market will see enhanced technical privacy and accelerated institutional adoption in 2026. However, platforms must concurrently address challenges such as liquidity maintenance, security infrastructure development, and the sustainability of revenue models to achieve long-term growth.