Bitwise CIO: The Crypto Winter Began in January 2025, But Was Masked by ETF and DAT Fund Inflows, and Is Now Ending

Odaily News Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan published a lengthy post on the X platform, stating that the market has been in a crypto winter since January 2025, and it may be nearing its end. Bitcoin has fallen 39% from its all-time high in October 2025, and Ethereum has fallen 53%. This is a full-blown crypto winter triggered by factors such as excessive leverage and OG profit-taking. Crypto winters typically last about 13 months. For example, Bitcoin peaked in December 2017 and bottomed in December 2018; subsequently, it peaked again in October 2021 and bottomed in November 2022.

He believes the current "winter" began in January 2025, but this fact was masked by inflows into ETFs and Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs). He categorized assets into three groups for analysis:

1. The first group (BTC, ETH, XRP), which received significant ETF/DAT support, fell only 10.3% to 19.9%.

2. The second group (SOL, LTC, LINK), which had ETFs approved during 2025, fell 36.9% to 46.2%.

3. The third group (ADA, AVAX, SUI, DOT), which did not receive ETF support, fell 61.9% to 74.7%.

Data shows that during this period, ETFs and DATs collectively purchased 744,417 bitcoins, worth approximately $75 billion. Without the support of these funds, the retail market has been in a brutal winter since January 2025.

Finally, he stated that positive news is ignored in a bear market but is stored as potential energy. When market sentiment normalizes, this energy may be released powerfully, and a strong market rebound is expected soon. Subsequent positive catalysts depend on strong economic growth triggering a risk-on rally, the benefits of the CLARITY Act, sovereign adoption of Bitcoin, or simply the passage of time.