Institution: "Small Non-Farm Payrolls" Growth Expected to Slow, Significantly Lower Than January Non-Farm Payrolls

Odaily News Independent macroeconomic research firm Continuum Economics' Senior Economist for North America, Dave Sloan, stated that the January ADP employment figure is expected to increase by 30,000, slowing down from December's 41,000. Simultaneously, the ADP report data is anticipated to be significantly lower than January's non-farm payrolls data, as we expect overall non-farm payrolls for January to grow by 85,000. December's ADP data was largely consistent with the non-farm payrolls data, but recent ADP figures have tended to be weaker; over the past six months, ADP data has averaged 22,000 lower than non-farm payrolls. Although this gap narrowed in September and November, it is expected to widen to 50,000 in January. January's non-farm payrolls are expected to rebound from recent weakness in the retail sector, a factor that has less impact on ADP data. The January ADP breakdown is expected to show slight improvement in the goods-producing sector (especially construction), but a slowdown in service sector growth. The recent trend of ADP data underperforming non-farm payrolls is most pronounced in the service sector, with the data discrepancy in the education and healthcare industries being particularly notable. (Jin10)