Wintermute: This Bear Market May End Faster Than Before, Market Likely to Recover in the Second Half of the Year

Odaily News Wintermute posted on X, stating that it is clear we are already in a bear market, and in fact, it has been ongoing for some time — especially evident from the performance of altcoins, the extreme concentration of rebounds, and market sentiment on X. However, the difference with this bear market is that it was not triggered by structural collapses like FTX, Luna, or 3AC, but rather by a relatively natural deleveraging process driven by changes in the macro environment and cyclical trends, with its core drivers being shifts in positions, risk appetite, and market narratives.

This is crucial. Due to the absence of bankruptcies and systemic contagion, this cycle may end faster than previous bear markets. The infrastructure is more robust, stablecoin adoption continues to grow, and institutional interest has not disappeared but has temporarily retreated to the sidelines. Once conditions improve, attention and capital could quickly return — most likely in the second half of 2026, when macro uncertainties diminish and the Federal Reserve's policy path becomes clearer.

In the short term, positions have significantly lightened after the liquidation, but market confidence remains weak. After two months of range-bound volatility, we have re-entered the price discovery phase. It is still too early to talk about any meaningful upward trend, but if one emerges, its pattern may be clearer than the reversals seen in previous bear markets — because this time, the crypto ecosystem has not suffered structural damage.