Galaxy Digital: Bitcoin May Test 200-Week Moving Average at $58,000 in Coming Months

Odaily Galaxy Digital's Head of Research, Alex Thorn, analyzed that Bitcoin's recent price action has shown a clear weakening trend. Between January 28 and January 31, Bitcoin fell by approximately 15% cumulatively, with a single-day drop of 10% on January 31, triggering over $2 billion in long contract liquidations. During this period, the price dipped to a low of around $75,600, falling below the average cost basis of approximately $84,000 for U.S. Bitcoin ETFs and approaching the annual low of around $74,400 formed in April 2025. Currently, about 46% of Bitcoin's supply is in a state of unrealized loss.

The analysis suggests Bitcoin could decline further to the bottom of the supply gap near $70,000, and may even test the 200-week moving average around $58,000 and the realized price around $56,000 in the coming weeks to months. Historically, this range has often corresponded to cyclical bottoms and has provided significant reference levels for long-term investors.

Furthermore, the report notes that while profit-taking by long-term holders has slowed, the market has not yet observed large-scale accumulation by whales or long-term holders. Additionally, Bitcoin's recent failure to rise in tandem with traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver has weakened its "hedge against currency debasement" narrative. The analysis believes the market may still face downward pressure in the short term, but long-term capital can monitor changes at key support levels.