Barclays: Expects U.S. Treasury Issuance to "Stagnate" for Two Consecutive Years

Odaily News Barclays Bank interest rate strategists forecast in a research report that the U.S. Treasury Department will maintain the issuance size of interest-bearing bonds unchanged in the next quarter and throughout fiscal year 2026. Analyst Dhiraj Narula noted that this prediction aligns with previous policy guidance, meaning the issuance volume has remained stable for a full two years since the last increase from February to April 2024. Narula emphasized in the report that the underlying fiscal situation in the United States remains severe. He pointed out: "The nearly $2 trillion annual deficit continues to put pressure on the U.S. Treasury Department regarding debt issuance." While the scale is currently expected to remain unchanged, Narula cautioned that the U.S. Treasury Department stated last November that it had "begun preliminary considerations for potentially increasing" auction sizes in the future. Therefore, the upcoming quarterly refunding announcement may reveal the latest progress on these expansion plans. (Jin10)