"1011 Insider Whale" Agent: Comparing Current Bitcoin Trend to 2022 is Utterly Absurd

Odaily News Garret Jin, the agent for the "1011 Insider Whale," stated on platform X that recent comparisons by analysts between the current BTC price trend and that of 2022 are completely absurd. The underlying logic differs fundamentally in terms of long-term price patterns, macroeconomic backdrop, investor composition, and supply/holding structure.

1. Macroeconomic Backdrop: In March 2022, the US was experiencing high inflation and a rate-hiking cycle, with capital prioritizing risk avoidance. The current macro environment is the opposite; CPI and US risk-free rates are declining, the AI technology revolution has increased the likelihood of the economy entering a long-term deflationary cycle, interest rates have entered a rate-cutting phase, and capital behavior reflects risk appetite.

2. Technical Structure: The 2021-2022 period formed a weekly M-top pattern, whereas the current situation is a weekly breakdown from an ascending channel, which is more likely a bear trap before a rebound back into the channel. The range between $62,000 and $80,850 has seen significant consolidation and turnover, providing better risk-reward for bullish positions.

3. Investor Structure: The market was dominated by retail investors from 2020 to 2022. Starting in 2023, the launch of BTC ETFs introduced structural long-term holders, locking up supply and significantly reducing volatility. BTC's volatility has shifted from its historical 80%-150% range to 30%-60%. The biggest difference between the current investor structure (original text states early 2026) and that of 2022 is the market's shift from retail-driven, high-leverage speculation to institution-driven, structural long-term holding.