CryptoQuant: Weak Market Demand Suggests Current Rally is Merely a Bear Market Bounce, Bitcoin Trend Highly Similar to 2022

Odaily News According to on-chain data analytics firm CryptoQuant, Bitcoin's recent price rebound appears more like a temporary rally than a sustained recovery, as market demand remains weak.

CryptoQuant stated in a report on Friday: "Bitcoin has risen 21% since November 21, which seems to be a bear market rally. Demand conditions, while slightly improved, remain weak." A bear market rally refers to a sharp price rebound within an overall downtrend that does not alter the fundamental bearish market structure. Research Director Julio Moreno noted that behind Bitcoin's current rebound, the trend of persistently shrinking demand continues.

After previously falling about 19% and breaking below the 365-day moving average, Bitcoin has risen approximately 21% since November 21. CryptoQuant views this moving average as a key dividing line between bull and bear market conditions; once Bitcoin falls below it, a bear market is confirmed. Analysts pointed out that the current price action is highly similar to the situation in 2022—when Bitcoin also staged a strong rebound after breaking below the 365-day moving average, only to encounter resistance near that average and resume its decline.