Bitwise: If ETF Demand Persists Long-Term, BTC Price Will Enter Parabolic Growth Phase

Odaily News Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan posted on X platform, stating that if ETF demand persists long-term, BTC's price will enter a parabolic growth phase. Using the 65% price increase of gold in 2025 as an example, Matt Hougan pointed out that both gold and BTC prices are determined by supply and demand dynamics.

After the U.S. confiscated Russian sovereign bond deposits in 2022, annual gold purchases by central banks increased from about 500 tons to about 1000 tons and have remained stable since. This demand altered the supply-demand balance but was not immediately reflected in the price. Gold prices rose 2% in 2022, 13% in 2023, and 27% in 2024, only entering parabolic growth in 2025. This is because demand in the earlier years was met by holders willing to sell gold. When sellers' selling pressure was exhausted and demand persisted, prices subsequently surged significantly.

A similar situation currently exists with BTC and ETFs. Since their debut in January 2024, ETF purchases have exceeded 100% of BTC's new supply. Because existing holders are willing to sell, the price has not yet entered a parabolic phase. If ETF demand continues, the selling pressure from existing sellers will eventually be exhausted.