Polymarket's "No" Bet on "Christ Has Not Returned" Offers 5.5% Annualized Return, Outperforming US Treasury Bonds

Odaily News A contract on the prediction market Polymarket concerning "whether Jesus Christ will return to Earth in 2025" attracted approximately $3.3 million in funding for 2025. As the event was ultimately judged as "No," participants who bet on "Will Not Happen" at the April peak received an annualized return of about 5.5%, even outperforming the yield on US Treasury bonds during the same period. The report noted that the contract once maintained the probability of the "Second Coming" above 3%, reflecting the pricing characteristics of prediction markets under the interplay of sentiment, belief, and speculation.

Bloomberg also pointed out that while such contracts have increased the attention on prediction markets, they have also sparked academic controversy. Some scholars believe that such highly entertaining or symbolic events may undermine the informational value of prediction markets in serious public issues. As the contract has been relaunched in a 2026 version, the current market still assigns the event a probability of about 2%, reflecting the characteristic of prediction markets to continuously attract speculative funds under the narrative of "low probability, high return." (Bloomberg)