Investment banks predict a "crypto winter" in 2026, but institutionalization and on-chain transformation will continue.

According to Odaily Planet Daily, investment bank Cantor Fitzgerald stated in its year-end report that Bitcoin may be entering a prolonged downtrend, potentially facing a "crypto winter" in 2026. Analyst Brett Knoblauch indicated that Bitcoin is currently about 85 days away from its cyclical high, and prices may remain under pressure in the coming months, even testing the average break-even point of approximately $75,000 for Strategy holdings.

However, Cantor believes that this round of adjustments differs from previous bear markets triggered by large-scale liquidations or systemic risks. The dominant force in the current market is shifting from retail investors to institutional investors, and token price performance is showing a clear divergence from underlying developments. Decentralized finance, asset tokenization, and crypto infrastructure are still progressing steadily.

The report shows that the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) has grown to approximately $18.5 billion this year, a three-fold increase from the beginning of the year, covering credit products, US Treasury bonds, and stocks. Cantor predicts that the on-chain RWA market will exceed $50 billion by 2026, and the growth rate may accelerate as more financial institutions try on-chain settlement.

In terms of trading structure, decentralized exchanges (DEXs) are continuously eroding the market share of centralized platforms. Although Cantor predicts that overall trading volume may decline in 2026 as cryptocurrency prices fall, DEXs, represented by perpetual contracts, are still expected to continue to grow, driven by improvements in infrastructure and user experience.

On the regulatory front, the recently passed Clarity Act on Digital Asset Markets in the United States is considered a significant turning point. This act clarifies the criteria for defining digital assets as either securities or commodities, and, upon meeting decentralized requirements, transfers primary regulatory authority over the spot crypto market to the CFTC. This framework is expected to reduce policy uncertainty and provide a compliant pathway for banks and asset management institutions to participate more deeply in the crypto market.

Furthermore, the report also mentions the rapid expansion of on-chain prediction markets, particularly in the sports betting sector, where related transaction volume has exceeded $5.9 billion, reaching more than 50% of DraftKings' third-quarter transaction volume. Institutions such as Robinhood, Coinbase, and Gemini have entered this arena, driving the development of more transparent, order book-based models.

Cantor also cautioned that risks remain: Bitcoin's price is only slightly above the cost range of some crypto asset treasury companies, and a break below key support levels could trigger market sentiment volatility; meanwhile, the pace of accumulation by digital asset trusts has slowed as prices and premiums have contracted.

Overall, Cantor believes that 2026 may not see a new price surge, but as the market cools down, a more robust infrastructure and deeper institutionalization are gradually taking shape. (CoinDesk)