Matrixport: The crypto market may be shifting from a phase where downside risks outweigh upside potential to a phase where upside is limited and catalysts are still needed for further gains.

According to Matrixport's latest weekly report, Bitcoin has been on a downward trend since mid-October 2025, with market sentiment becoming more cautious. With the "four-year cycle" narrative resurfacing, most traders expect Bitcoin to remain under pressure in 2026.

Key observation points:

Bitcoin has been under pressure in recent months amid a converging volatility environment, deleveraging, and a lack of risk appetite.

From the perspectives of derivatives, ETFs, and technical indicators, the market's positioning structure has changed.

The largest Bitcoin options expiring in history is approaching, and the strike price distribution is becoming an important indicator for observing market pressure and opportunities.

Market Outlook:

The market typically tends to be conservative at the end of the year, with a decrease in risk appetite among investors.

With the start of the new year and the reallocation of funds and the recovery of risk budgeting, market sentiment may reverse more rapidly.

Technical analysis suggests that downward momentum is slowing, but a clear consensus on an upward trend has not yet been reached.

The market may be shifting from a phase where "downside risks outweigh upside risks" to a phase where "downside is limited and upside still needs catalysts."

Current Bitcoin prices and weekly stochastic indicators suggest that the market may have entered oversold territory, with the stochastic indicator dropping to 17%. The crypto market may be shifting from a phase where downside risk is dominant to a phase where downside is limited and upside still requires catalysts.