Opinion: The absence of an extreme surge in Bitcoin at the end of the year suggests that a sharp drop is unlikely in the first quarter.

According to Odaily Planet Daily, Anthony Pompliano stated in an interview with CNBC that the lack of a frenzied price surge for Bitcoin at the end of the year could be a catalyst to prevent a major crash in the first quarter of next year. He pointed out that given the current significant compression of Bitcoin volatility, the possibility of a 70% or 80% retracement is extremely low.

Anthony Pompliano stated that although Bitcoin did not reach the $250,000 target expected by some investors, its 100% increase in two years and nearly 300% increase in three years still demonstrate its strong performance in the financial markets. He added that while the reduced volatility disappointed holders who valued upside potential, it also provided downside safety, reducing the probability of a large-scale pullback. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $87,436, down 7.39% from the beginning of the year. Furthermore, Peter Brandt predicts that Bitcoin may fall to $60,000 in the third quarter of 2026, while Jurrien Timmer, Global Director of Macro Research at Fidelity, believes the price could drop to $65,000 in 2026.