Citigroup: Upcoming non-farm payroll report may release more conflicting signals

According to an analysis by the Financial Times, the US non-farm payrolls report to be released next Tuesday will include data from October and November, finally providing policymakers and investors with a more complete picture of the US labor market and ending months of partial uncertainty. Following a contentious meeting this week, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates to a three-year low, with several officials dissenting, the debate centered on whether to prioritize addressing high inflation or a weak job market. Economists at Citigroup pointed out that the upcoming jobs report may release more conflicting signals. The bank expects a loss of about 45,000 jobs in October but an increase of 80,000 in November. Citigroup economists stated that this rebound may be more related to seasonally adjusted data rather than a "real improvement in worker demand." They also predict the unemployment rate will rise from 4.4% to 4.52%, while a Reuters poll of economists showed an unemployment rate of 4.4%. The Fed's own quarterly forecasts indicate a median unemployment rate of about 4.5% by the end of this year. (Jinshi)