Summary of Fed rate cut opinions for December: The "no rate cut" camp currently holds the upper hand.

According to Odaily Planet Daily, the following is a summary of opinions regarding a potential December rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with the "no rate cut" camp currently holding the upper hand:

1. Wasif Latif, President and Chief Investment Officer of Sarmaya Partners, stated that the US September non-farm payroll data significantly exceeded expectations. The market is adjusting accordingly and reassessing the Fed's "rate cut tug-of-war," but the game is not over. There are still uncertainties between now and the Fed's December interest rate decision, and this tug-of-war will continue as more data is released. The September data itself was acceptable, but the real key is the October data, as most layoff announcements occur in that month. If the October data is available, it is likely to show a weaker job market than September, which would significantly push the market towards rate cut expectations. Unfortunately, we do not yet have this information, so we must judge based on the available data.

2. Florian Ielpo, an analyst at Lombard Odier Asset Management, commented on the US September non-farm payrolls: This report is old news, and given its timeliness, the market is unlikely to pay too much attention to the numbers. However, for the Federal Reserve, this may not be "insignificant" data. The key message is that the US job market did indeed recover in September 2025, which has an impact on the Federal Reserve, and the market needs to digest this.

3. Art Hogan, an analyst at B. Riley Wealth, stated that the problem lies in the significant lag in the September US non-farm payroll report, with the next report not expected until after the Fed's December interest rate decision. This puts the Fed in a decision-making dilemma and does not significantly increase the probability of rate cuts in any direction. The market rally was primarily driven by solid earnings reports from Nvidia and Walmart, thus the market reaction was more driven by corporate profits than economic data.

4. Ali Jaffery, an analyst at CIBC Capital Markets, commented on the US September non-farm payrolls: The Fed's pause in rate hikes in December largely depended on insufficient data, thus postponing policy decisions until next year to act when complete data is available again. This may be a wiser choice, especially given the legal challenges facing tariffs.

5. Institutional analysts' commentary on the US September non-farm payrolls: Assessing the probability of a Fed rate cut in December is difficult. Market pricing is again close to a 50% probability, and the Beige Book may once again be the deciding factor, as no new CPI or employment reports will be available before the December meeting. For long-term interest rates, if the Fed directs market attention to a January rate cut at its meeting, then a December rate cut will be irrelevant. Therefore, in my view, all the concerns surrounding whether there will be a rate cut in December are only meaningful for short-term interest rate traders.

6. Interactive Brokers analyst Steve Sosnick's commentary on the September US non-farm payrolls: Although this report "may be outdated," it's currently the only one the market can rely on. For economists who like to "have a backup plan," this report couldn't be more suitable. On the one hand, the better-than-expected non-farm payroll data indicates a healthy labor market; but on the other hand, higher continuing jobless claims and the unemployment rate provide the Federal Reserve with reasons to support the employment component of its dual mandate. Of course, on yet another front, the rise in the unemployment rate is partly due to an increase in the labor force participation rate.