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Analysis: The September non-farm payroll report must be very weak to weaken the dollar.

2025-11-20 12:46

According to Lee Hardman, a foreign exchange analyst at MUFG, investor confidence in a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve has waned following the Bureau of Labor Statistics' announcement of the cancellation of the October non-farm payrolls report. Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics also postponed the November non-farm payrolls report to December 16th, meaning the Fed can only rely on today's September report when it makes its December decision. The uncertainty surrounding the labor market health in October and November may lead the Fed to adopt a more cautious strategy, pausing rate cuts in December. Therefore, today's September non-farm payrolls report must be significantly weaker than expected to encourage market participants to increase their bets on a December rate cut by the Fed, thereby weakening the dollar. (Jinshi)