Viewpoint: The US economic surprise index turned positive for the first time since February this week, and the US dollar may strengthen

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the Bloomberg US Economic Surprise Index turned positive this week for the first time since February. Meanwhile, second-quarter 2025 GDP growth, initial jobless claims, and personal spending data all exceeded expectations. Historically, when the economic surprise index rises and remains positive, the US dollar tends to strengthen.

In addition, speculative short positions in the US dollar held by asset managers and leveraged funds have reached the highest level since early 2021.