QCP Capital: Multiple reasons have caused the current market volatility to decrease, and the countdown to the resumption of the trade war has begun

Odaily News QCP Capital posted on its official channel that in terms of macro events, the Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged as widely expected by the market. However, the policy committee remained hawkish, emphasizing that short-term inflation expectations remain high and listing tariffs as a key upside risk. Officials reiterated their preference for a wait-and-see strategy until the inflation path becomes clearer. The market continues to be less sensitive to geopolitical headlines, including ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran.
The countdown to the trade war has begun. As the July 9 deadline for the EU tariff suspension approaches, the United States has only reached one agreement among nearly 195 potential trading partners. Negotiations have reached an impasse, news leaks have become a rehash, and the market's reaction to news of gradual tariffs has become increasingly blunt. The following time points are still crucial: July 14: The EU intends to impose retaliatory tariffs on the United States August 12: The 90-day tariff truce between China and the United States ends August 31: The long-term tariff exemption for Chinese imports expires These time points may trigger periodic declines in risky assets.
However, QCP's baseline scenario is still optimistic: given the overlap of interests between the two sides, the China-US trade negotiations are more likely to reach a stable conclusion, which will provide support for the continued rise of risky assets. At present, the market risk reversal indicator remains negative (put option premium over call option), reflecting the market's cautious layout and expectations of a short-term correction.