Cryptoquant: Bitcoin may continue its positive cycle and close the third consecutive bullish year

Odaily News Cryptoquant analyst Carmelo_Alemán published a market analysis, saying that on-chain analysis uses indicators such as MVRV, UTXO value bands, and trading platform reserves to interpret blockchain data from a micro and macro level. These tools help us understand on-chain dynamics and guide wise decision-making. However, this method of constantly looking for micro signals to infer macro trends is often useful, but sometimes it obscures the cyclical forces that really drive Bitcoin's long-term price behavior.
The Bitcoin Annual Percent Trend corrects this by showing Bitcoin's annual performance since 2011, revealing a regular cycle of three years of growth followed by one year of consolidation, coinciding with Bitcoin's four-year halving rhythm. The importance of this growth cycle is that, according to this indicator, if Bitcoin maintains its typical pace in the third year of the cycle, it could grow by about 120% by 2025. The $93,226 start has led to a price of $205,097, which could be the top of the cycle this year.
If this logic holds true, 2025 will likely close with a third consecutive bullish year, completing another positive cycle. This signals that we are in the final stages of the current cycle and has important strategic implications for investors who want to align with Bitcoin's multi-year structure. This behavior is also supported by other cyclical indicators such as Realized Cap, which continues to hit new all-time highs in 2025. Using the long-term perspective of "Bitcoin Annual Percent Trend" helps investors stay calm during short-term fluctuations.