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QCP: Foreign exchange turbulence becomes a macro-warning "canary", and the market may face directional choices
2025-05-06 08:45

Odaily News QCP Capital released a daily report stating that currently, the implied volatility of the crypto market is still suppressed, the short-end volatility skew is returning to neutral, and the spot price has basically no obvious direction. At the same time, the turmoil in the foreign exchange market echoed the nearly 3% rise in gold on Monday. Investors are betting on a weaker dollar and starting to price in geopolitical risk premiums, including potential US trade diplomacy activities. We may usher in a round of volatility shocks, and Bitcoin may decouple from the safe-haven logic of gold and re-link with a wider range of risky assets; in a market environment where correlations are gradually disintegrating, the foreign exchange market may once again become the "canary" (a metaphor for early warning signals) of macroeconomic risks.