Opinion: Bitcoin is experiencing a "shakeout" rather than the beginning of a bear market, and the four-year cycle is still the key factor

Odaily News Bitcoin is now 22% below its all-time high of $109,000 on Trump's inauguration day on January 20. Although investor sentiment has repeatedly fallen into the "extreme fear" zone, crypto analysts generally believe that the Bitcoin bull cycle has not yet ended, and this decline may be a "shock" - a sharp drop caused by concentrated liquidation of long positions, followed by a rapid rebound.
Bitfinex analysts pointed out that "a number of key technical indicators have turned bearish, triggering speculation that the bull market will end early. However, Bitcoin's four-year cycle is still a key factor. History shows that pullbacks in bull market cycles are normal. This time is more likely to be a shakeout rather than the beginning of a bear market. The bottom of Bitcoin may be formed in sync with the U.S. stock market (especially the S&P 500). $72,000 to $73,000 is still the key support range, but global government bond yields and stock market trends will dominate Bitcoin's next move. Trade war risks have been partially priced, but long-term economic pressures may suppress sentiment." Nexo analyst Iliya Kalchev said, "Although Bitcoin's four-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) has fallen to a historical low of 8%, the halving event is still crucial to long-term price trends. The halving in April 2024 will reduce the block reward to 3.125 BTC. Since then, Bitcoin has accumulated more than 31%. Although ETF buying brought about by institutional adoption has become the main driving force in the past year, the halving effect will continue to affect the market." (Cointelegraph)