Odaily News Concerns about the tariff war have been lingering on the minds of global investors over the past week, and Trump's erratic style of behavior has exacerbated market volatility. At the same time, the latest non-farm data and the University of Michigan consumer survey have further clouded the Fed's interest rate cut prospects. Trump will hardly leave the market a chance to blink in the coming week, and further news on his tariff plan will continue to attract close attention. In addition, US inflation data and Fed Chairman Powell's visit to Capitol Hill may be the key to influencing expectations of US interest rate cuts in the near term. The following are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week:
At 22:00 on Monday, ECB President Lagarde will participate in the plenary debate on the ECB's 2023 Annual Report. At 0:00 on Tuesday, the New York Fed's 1-year inflation expectations for January in the United States. At 21:50 on Tuesday, Cleveland Fed President Hammack will give a speech on the economic outlook. At 23:00 on Tuesday, Fed Chairman Powell will attend a Senate hearing and deliver a semi-annual monetary policy testimony. At 4:30 on Wednesday, FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams will deliver a speech. At 21:30 on Wednesday, the US CPI and core CPI for January will be released.
At 23:00 on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver semi-annual monetary policy testimony to the House Financial Services Committee. At 1:00 on Thursday, 2027 FOMC voting member and Atlanta Fed President Bostic will speak on the economic outlook. At 21:30 on Thursday, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending February 8 will be released. At 21:30 on Thursday, the annual and monthly rates of PPI in January will be released. At 21:30 on Friday, the monthly rate of retail sales in January will be released. At 22:15 on Friday, the monthly rate of industrial output in January in the United States will be released. Several Wall Street analysts warned that January is traditionally a more challenging period for forecasting CPI due to seasonal factors, which increases the possibility of market volatility when data is released. According to the Cleveland Fed's inflation Nowcasting indicator, the year-on-year growth rate of overall CPI in January is expected to be 2.85%, and the year-on-year growth rate of core CPI will be 3.13%, only slightly slower than the previous month. This should strengthen market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates stable at its March meeting. (Jinshi)