Odaily News Rabobank said that at present, Trump's plan has not substantially changed the economic outlook of the eurozone. Therefore, there is no reason to expect the ECB to change its interest rate cut path at this time.
The ECB's Governing Council increasingly expects inflation to converge to its 2% target by 2025, which would allow for another 25 basis point rate cut at the January policy meeting. However, uncertainty about the future remains high.
Therefore, while the ECB may be inclined to cut rates further in the coming months, we think the ECB will also want to maintain its flexibility. Lagarde will likely avoid providing any forward guidance.
Overall, the ECB is expected to cut interest rates three times, bringing the deposit rate down to 2.25% by April, based on the assumption that underlying inflation will be stickier than the ECB expects.