Opinion: Bitcoin will not crash this year, the market is on the verge of the biggest bull cycle

Odaily News Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading, said in an article on X that he does not think that "there will be a big crash in BTC in 2024", and explained: "This is a regular adjustment, which is very normal for the current market conditions. However, when looking at some other data points, we can determine why the current main issue is surrounded by the topic of 'Bitcoin crash'. For example, the panic and greed index of cryptocurrency once reached 22. The last time this data point was reached was during the FTX crash in November 2022. To be honest, during that time, there were some reasonable reasons to question the future of cryptocurrency, because basically the whole year was a disaster and Bitcoin hit a new cycle low. The current price of Bitcoin is $54,000, only 25% away from its historical high. From a macroeconomic perspective, in an environment that supports cryptocurrencies, market sentiment has once again turned to these negative numbers. If Bitcoin continues to be a risky asset and there is panic in the competitive environment of the macroeconomy (or the United States), then there is certainly a possibility that the market will crash. However, if we look at the most important variables, then I think we are actually on the verge of the 'final' run of the stock bull market. I don’t like to measure asset values in USD, it doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. So here’s the question: is it replicating the four-year cycle? It could be, as the market is consolidating after the Bitcoin halving, yet the price has been hitting new highs due to the massive influx of money into Bitcoin via ETFs earlier this year. However, if you look at different dynamics, and not just USD, then you come to the conclusion that this is a copy/paste of the previous cycle after adjusting for inflation, Bitcoin has not hit any new all-time highs so far. I don’t think we’re going to see a big crash in Bitcoin, to be honest, a big crash in the stock market is much more likely (which would probably drag Bitcoin down with it). It seems like almost all crypto market participants are eager to cash out in Q3/Q4 2025. But what if none of this happens? What if the four-year cycle is complete bullshit and we should focus on liquidity cycles instead? In this regard, we could be copy/pasting the pattern of previous years. This means: Bitcoin will go up until March/April 2025, then a period of consolidation/correction, then up until 2026, and in 2026 I also think the price estimate now is higher than everyone expects given the impact of ETFs. If the liquidity cycle starts again, it seems likely that Bitcoin will surge significantly, given that quantitative easing may just be the right counter to a weak economy and labor market. Given that a weak economy causes investors to flee the traditional economic system, I suspect we will have a strong interest in DeFi. This is why I put a lot of emphasis on Bitcoin's valuation relative to the S&P 500, and the relevant chart shows that the market is copying/pasting the previous cycle of 2019-2020, in which external factors such as the epidemic quickly accelerated the bull cycle. Not through halving, but by adding external liquidity to the market. A recession or weakness could be another reason for a bull cycle. We are down 35% from our all-time highs relative to the S&P, and we haven't seen any new all-time highs at all in the current cycle, so we have completely copied/pasted the previous cycle. A major correction is happening in the market, which may be about to end, and Bitcoin prices will fall into the $45,000-50,000 range. From that perspective, with the Fed’s upcoming rate cuts, a weakening economy, and so on, it seems inevitable that we are actually on the brink of the biggest bull market cycle ever.”