Odaily News According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 96.4%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 3.6%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 1.0%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 95.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 3.6%.