Odaily News According to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 95.3%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 4.7%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 26.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 70.0%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 3.3%.