Odaily News According to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 93.3%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 6.7%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 22.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 72.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 5.1%.