Odaily News According to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 88.6%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 11.4%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 36.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 57%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 6.7%.