Odaily News According to CMEs Fed Watch, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 90.7%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 9.3%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 39%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 55.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 5.3%.