Matrixport Research: BTC's upward momentum is not exhausted yet, and it may rise further in the summer

On May 12, BTC has rebounded to the upper edge of its range ($106,000). With the emergence of a number of favorable catalysts, breaking through the historical high may gradually enter the market's expected range. The fading of the periodic downside risk makes the path for further price increases clearer.

Pressure on technology stocks eased and market sentiment rebounded

Previously, the first round of correction in the U.S. technology sector was mainly caused by the downward adjustment of earnings expectations; but with the concentrated disclosure of the first quarter financial reports in April, the relevant pressure has been significantly relieved. At the same time, market concerns about technology giants cutting AI-related data center spending have also been dispelled - many companies have reiterated their long-term investment commitments in artificial intelligence infrastructure. The above statements boosted investor confidence, pushed up stock prices, and improved market sentiment simultaneously.

Trump's policies may have a positive impact on the market and boost market expectations

Trump has shifted his focus to announcing foreign investment plans and cooperation agreements, further boosting the market's risk appetite for stocks and BTC. The disclosure of financial reports and the resumption of stock buybacks confirm that the market has reversed from a downward trend to a bullish pattern. Trump's tax cuts may continue, coupled with expectations of potential regulatory relaxation, which will be a positive catalyst for the market and is expected to further boost market expectations for economic growth. This may prompt the market to repricing growth expectations and readjust bond yields.

With multiple positive factors overlapping, risk assets are expected to enter a favorable trading window in July

Risk assets (especially BTC) are expected to enter a favorable trading window before July. This period coincides with the expiration of the 90-day tariff truce, the start of the second quarter earnings season, and the expected peak of liquidity indicators, with multiple key factors overlapping in time. Although the liquidity indicator itself has certain limitations, due to the market's widespread trust in its effectiveness, it may trigger a "self-fulfilling" expectation effect. As more and more companies include BTC in their financial reserves, the market's circulating supply will further decrease, which may trigger an upward squeeze on BTC prices. However, as the market enters the traditional summer trading off-season, this round of momentum may gradually slow down.

FTX repayment is about to start, and the influx of stablecoins into the market may boost market resonance

Another important catalyst is the upcoming debt repayment process by FTX. The repayment is for accounts with debts of more than $50,000 and is expected to start around May 30, 2025. The total repayment is expected to be between $7 billion and $10 billion, which will be issued in the form of stablecoins, a considerable portion of which is expected to flow back into the crypto asset market. This additional liquidity may boost market momentum in June, resonating with the continued inflow of funds into the BTC ETF and the active performance of stablecoin trading.

The market's concerted motivation to maintain BTC's high level may be related to the IPO promotion plan of crypto companies with a total scale of up to US$100 billion. Coinbase was recently included in the S&P 500 index, further reflecting the mainstream capital market's continued interest in the inclusion of crypto companies in core equity indexes.

Disclaimer: The market is risky and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading can be extremely risky and unstable. Investment decisions should be made after carefully considering personal circumstances and consulting financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.