Tide Capital: 6 Big Ideas You Need to Know About Bitcoin Halving
At Bitcoin block height #837188, 20 days away from the fourth halving, Bitcoin is standing above the $70,000 mark, and market sentiment has undergone subtle changes in the face of the upcoming halving. , will the halving market repeat itself or trigger a new narrative? The long and short sides are competing fiercely.
Tide Capital releases the latest research report on its official website6 Big Ideas You Need to Know About Bitcoin Halving, explains the six most important clues and judgments that drive Bitcoin prices.
This article excerpts part of the research report for public publication. Please log in for full textTide CapitalDownload the full version of the research report from the official website.
Bitcoin: About to Complete 4th Halving, Reducing Annual Selling Pressure by $10 Billion
Bitcoin will complete its fourth halving on April 18, 2024, and the block reward will be reduced from 6.25 Bitcoins to 3.125 Bitcoins, further reducing Bitcoin’s output and selling pressure.
Before the halving, the annual output of Bitcoin was about 330,000, which would bring more than $20 billion of selling pressure to the market based on a price of $65,000. After the halving, the annual selling pressure on Bitcoin will also be reduced by half, which is equivalent to a reduction of US$10 billion, effectively easing the selling pressure on Bitcoin.
Bitcoin: 3 halvings in history, all with sharp gains in the following year
Bitcoin has experienced three halvings in history, in November 2012, July 2016, and May 2020. The common point is that there was a sharp rise one year after the halving. There are currently less than 30 days until the fourth halving, and the market is beginning to price in the impact of the halving. There is a high probability that Bitcoin will continue to fluctuate upward.
Bitcoin: Spot ETFs receive accelerated inflows of funds, helping Bitcoin continue to rise
On January 10, the BTC spot ETF was approved, which has since brought tens of billions of dollars in over-the-counter capital inflows, helping Bitcoin continue to rise. In previous bull markets, BTC usually had multiple corrections of more than 20%. However, the number of corrections in this bull market is not many and the magnitude of the corrections is not large. This is precisely due to the continuous inflow of OTC funds.
Referring to the gold ETF, after the launch of the first gold ETF, gold ushered in a long bull run of nearly 10 years, with an increase of more than 400%. Compared with gold, BTC storage is safer, transactions are more convenient, transfers are faster, and it has superior value storage characteristics. The current market value of gold is US$14.5 trillion, while the market value of Bitcoin is only US$1.3 trillion. Bitcoin is still 10 times ahead of gold. However, the launch of Bitcoin ETF is more popular than the gold ETF of that year, and the speed of capital inflow is far ahead. .
Inscription: Bitcoin is a native innovation, and it is expected to start the third wave when the halving occurs
In January 2023, Bitcoin developer Casey Rodarmor released the Ordinals protocol, which allows users to embed data into the Bitcoin blockchain to create NFT and token assets on Bitcoin, opening up a new way of playing in the Bitcoin ecosystem. Since its launch, the total number of Ordinals engravings has exceeded 60 million.
Inscription has experienced two waves of craze. The first wave started in April 2023. The leading token ORDI rose from $0.005 to $28, an increase of more than 5000 times in two months. The second wave began in October 2023, with ORDI rising from $3 to $96. OKX and Binance have launched the Inscription trading market, driving more Inscription assets to rise.
Inscription is a native innovation of the Bitcoin ecosystem, bringing more users and developers to the Bitcoin community, and various new applications and gameplay are constantly emerging. When Bitcoin undergoes its next halving, the market’s focus will return to the Bitcoin ecosystem again, and Inscription will also start a third wave of craze.
Rune: The protocol is expected to be launched at the halving, and Runestone is expected to become the core asset
The Runes Protocol was proposed by Casey Rodarmor, founder of Ordinals. As an improved and upgraded version of the BRC-20 protocol, it aims to provide a highly efficient, highly compatible, and highly scalable Bitcoin asset issuance and management framework. It is expected to be used in Bitcoin It was officially launched during the halving, so it became one of the mainstream concepts in the halving hype.
Rune Stone was launched by Leonidas, founder of Ordinals browser Ord.io, and completed its initial issuance by airdropping NFT to 112,383 Bitcoin addresses. Its current market value exceeds US$300 million. Runestones have become a representative asset of Rune Protocol, and more and more projects are beginning to airdrop to users who hold runestones. Runestones have huge room for imagination, and future applications and gameplay are worth looking forward to. In addition, after the Rune Protocol is launched, users holding rune stones can convert them into fungible tokens. In general, Rune Stone has the narrative of rune protocol + empty investment assets + coin issuance expectations and is expected to become the core asset of Bitcoins halving market.
Meme: Blue chip NFT mfers issue currency, market value from 0 to 200 million US dollars in 12 hours
On March 30, sartoshi, founder of the blue-chip NFT project mfers, issued the token mfercoin. In the white paper, he stated that mfercoin is a Meme coin with no intrinsic value, no profit expectations, and no specified purpose, and injected 80% of the tokens into it. into the liquidity pool, the remaining 20% of the tokens will be airdropped to the mfers community.
The NFT project mfers was launched in 2021. It once set off a PFP craze in the encryption community and is a well-known blue-chip NFT project. After mfercoin was launched, with the spontaneous support and spread of the community, the market value increased from 0 to 200 million US dollars within 12 hours. For the future of mfercoin, in the words of the mfers community, 1 $mfer= 1 $mfer.
The full version of the research report has a total of 34 pages and also includes content such as Meme, AI, Solana, Ethereum, etc. Please log inTide CapitalDownload the full version of the research report from the official website.
About Tide Capital
Tide Capital is a research-driven digital asset investment and trading firm. We study macro and fundamentals, capturing beta and alpha opportunities from crypto asset trends to financial cycles. Adhering to a value-driven philosophy, we are committed to investing in early-stage projects with significant growth potential. At the same time, we evaluate market cycles to guide investment decisions and actively participate in public market transactions to obtain returns.
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The information and materials introduced in this article were obtained from public channels.
