SignalPlus宏观分析(20240226)：高盛预测美联储将于6月首次降息
The market maintained a risk preference last Friday, and the yield on China's 10-year government bonds reached a 20-year low. The European fixed income market rose with support from the dovish comments by the European Central Bank, and despite a large supply of bonds, demand for new bonds remains quite good.
Sell-side economists have been revising their forecasts for US economic growth, with the general belief that the possibility of a recession has fallen to less than 40%. The median forecast for 2024 economic growth is 2.1%. In addition, due to strong economic data, Goldman Sachs has officially postponed its forecast for the Fed's first interest rate cut to June, but they still expect terminal rates to fall to a low of around 3.25-3.5%.
After experiencing an astonishing increase, the technology sector lagged behind last Friday due to profit-taking, but the stock market still remains near historical highs. Hedge funds and mutual funds have been holding a large amount of stock exposure since the beginning of the year, so both active and passive fund managers have achieved outstanding performance so far this year.
Corporate profits continue to recover, and it is expected that earnings will continue to grow by 2025. 36% of S&P companies mentioned "AI" in their quarterly earnings conference calls, and this theme continues to drive profits and market sentiment.
In terms of cryptocurrency, the price has also stabilized after a recent rebound, but the overall mainstream narrative continues to improve. Reddit recently announced in its S-1 (IPO) filing that they have invested some excess cash in BTC and ETH, and they are expected to continue using them to pay for certain virtual goods in the future.
Meanwhile, the participation level of retail investors continues to improve. JPM reports that compared to large institutional wallets, the inflow of funds into small wallets (i.e., retail investors) is larger. The net purchase volume of Bitcoin on retail platforms such as Block, PayPal, and Robinhood also rebounded in 2023, while Coinbase's Q4 2023 financial report showed increased trading activity from both institutions and retail investors.
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