SignalPlus Volatility Column (20230817): The crypto market is going down, and investors are beginning to make medium and long-term investments

特邀专栏作者

2023-08-17 20:45 (UTC+8)

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The digital currency finally ushered in a (downward) fluctuation after a long period of sideways trading. BTC fell by nearly 900 to around 28,500 within a day, and ETH also fell by around $60 to return below 1,800. Affected by this, the implied volatility of options took the lead in rising sharply,

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The minutes of the July FOMC meeting released in the United States last night (17 Aug 02: 00 am UTC+ 8) pointed out that most Fed officials still prioritize fighting inflation and believe that there is a certain lag in policy effects. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note continued to rise, breaking through the 4.3% mark and continuing to reach its highest level in 10 months.

Source: SignalPlus

Source: Deribit (as of 17 Aug 16:00 UTC+ 8)

The digital currency finally experienced a (downward) fluctuation after a long period of sideways trading. BTC fell by nearly 900 during the day to around 28,500, and ETH also fell by about 60 dollars and returned to below 1,800. Affected by this, the implied volatility of options took the lead in rising sharply, and then gave up some of the gains after prices returned to stability.

In terms of BTC, the market is still waiting for the review of ETFs, but as global risk sentiment heats up, bulk trading has shown a pessimistic attitude towards the short-term rise in BTC prices, and a large number of calendar spread strategies of selling short-term calls and buying mid-term calls have emerged. , such as Sell BTC-25 AUG 23-30000-C/Buy BTC-1 SEP 23-31000-C, Sell BTC-1 SEP 23-30000-C/Buy BTC-29 SEP 23-30000-C.

In terms of ETH, we pointed out in the last report that investors have begun to focus on longer term investments for medium and long-term investments. The forward Long Vol trading trend has continued in the past 24 hours, with a total of 10 K ETH. The bulk strategy represented by 1900 Long Straddle will generally push up the term IV of ETH by 1 to 2.5% from September onwards.

Source: Binance Tradingview BTC has continuously lost two support points of 29000 and 28700, and the next technical support point may be near 28100

Source: SignalPlus

Source: Deribit Block Trade

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