Foresight Ventures Weekly Market Report: Market Bottom and Shock, Tier 1 Financing Deep Bears

Foresight

特邀专栏作者

2022-09-26 14:00 (UTC+8)

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List of important news of the week

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List of important news of the week

market view

1. Macro liquidity

2. The whole market

The top 100 gainers by market capitalization:

Overall monetary liquidity tightened. The Fed's September rate meeting maintained a hawkish tone. The interest rate hike has not slowed down, and the dot plot shows that the interest rate will rise further and will remain high for a long time. The U.S. dollar index is at its highest level in two decades. Russia issued a mobilization order for the first time after World War II. The war between Russia and Ukraine may become protracted, and high inflation will be difficult to effectively curb in the short term. It is expected that the Federal Reserve may continue to raise interest rates by 75 basis points in November, and the adjustment of US asset prices has not yet ended. There is a high probability that the encryption market will follow the decline of US stocks, and there is still some distance from the bottom of the market.

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1) ETHW: ETH's fork candy, ETHW, was launched on FTX, OKX and other exchanges, and the price plummeted to around $6. ETHW was attacked by cross-chain replay, and 160,000 ETHW on the Polygon bridge was emptied, and its security was questioned.

3. BTC market

1) Data on the chain

2) GMX: The decentralized contract exchange GMX had a logical loophole, and the AVAX pool was attacked. GMX's synthetic asset offering will be live in a few weeks. VESTA in Arbitrum uses GLP to mortgage the stablecoin VST, which currently has an annualized rate of 20%, which can be revolving.

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1) Data on the chain

2) Futures market

BTC on-chain metrics show slower growth in transactions, new users, and active users. BTC’s inflation-hedging narrative has failed to hold water after it fell 72% from its all-time high. As the demand for block space fell, the number of BTC transactions and transaction fees fell by 3% and 23%, respectively. The average fee per transaction was just $1.40, down 21% in Q3 and 55% for the year. Miner revenue is approaching unprofitable levels. Eventually new narratives may emerge to replace old ones.

Funding is still on a downward trend. The market capitalization of the four major stablecoins continued to fall, dropping by about $300 million this week. The stock of funds in the market continues to decrease, and there is no sign of new external capital injection. From the perspective of purchasing power, the lack of funds is the main reason for the continuous decline in the current market.