Foresight Ventures Weekly Market Report: ETH landed positively and returned to the bear market track

Foresight

特邀专栏作者

2022-09-18 10:59 (UTC+8)

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A list of the important news of the week.

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A list of the important news of the week.

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Overall monetary liquidity tightened. The U.S. CPI in August was 8.3%, which was lower than market expectations of 8.1%. Although oil prices fell, the core CPI for housing, food, etc. was 6.1%, exceeding the 5.9% in July. Market expectations for a 75 basis point rate hike by the Fed next week fell to 67 percent from 91 percent, while bets on a larger 100 basis point hike rose to 33 percent. President Biden's comments that it will take more time to bring down inflation have increased the chances of a big rate hike in the coming months. U.S. stocks plummeted, and the cryptocurrency market adjusted accordingly.

The top 100 gainers by market capitalization

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1)ETH:The whole market

2)ATOM: The crypto market split this week, with BTC up 4% and ETH down 2%. The market pays close attention to the major upgrade of ETH. Some altcoins on Binance Exchange only have BTC trading pairs, and the market expects that stablecoin trading pairs will be listed, so the market is driven to increase the trading volume.

The COSMOS ecology is flourishing and developing, and it has become the second largest ecology after ETH. STRIDE newly launched stSTATOM, which is staked by ATOM. You can do LP on the ATOM/stATOM trading pair on OSMOSIS, with up to 200% STRD token rewards, 10% pledge income, and transaction fee income. The advantage is that there is no impermanence loss.

1) Data on the chain

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1) Data on the chain

2) Futures market

ETH is upgraded, and the market is divided between long and short. ETH deposits continue to flow into beacon chain contracts as development progresses and staking infrastructure increases. Over 11.2% of the circulating supply of ETH is now participating in the POS consensus, which represents an important vote of confidence in the ETH community. However, the stock of ETH in the exchange is close to the highest stock value in half a year, indicating that there are still a large number of chips transferred from the chain to the exchange, and the risk of selling has increased significantly.

The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore is based on the total market cost and reflects the overall profitability of the market. When the index is greater than 6, it is the top interval; when the index is less than 2, it is the bottom interval. The current indicator is -0.09, which is in the green bottom-buying range.

Futures funding rate: This week, the rate is mainly negative. There are more short-selling ETH hedges in the market, and the short-selling rate hit a new high in 14 months. The fee rate is 0.05-0.1%, with more long leverage, which is the short-term top of the market; the fee rate -0.1-0%, with more short leverage, is the short-term bottom of the market.

3) Spot market

This week’s bear market rally in BTC failed to achieve escape velocity. The price of BTC hit a low of 18650, retracing 73% from the top of this cycle, forming the second low point of the cycle. BTC has been falling for 10 months, and there are many similarities with the last stage of the 18-19 bear market. There is an internal demand for a rebound in the market, but there was some optimism just now, and it was brought down by the CPI data, so in the short term, I am afraid that it will continue to follow the US stock market down. In the absence of improvement in macro liquidity, it is estimated that it is easy to fall but difficult to rise.