AMPL, which plummeted 60% in a single day and crashed 4 times, can it come back this time?
Editor's Note: This article comes fromChatting with Xiaozha (ID: xiaonazha88), reprinted by Odaily with authorization.
Editor's Note: This article comes from
Chatting with Xiaozha (ID: xiaonazha88)
Chatting with Xiaozha (ID: xiaonazha88)
The unique "three no products" AMPL in DeFi collapsed. There is no asset collateral, no fixed total amount, and no stable stable currency. The price fell by 60% in one day, and the fund pool in uniswap also evaporated. Nearly 18 million The dollar, like an avalanche.
For those who have just entered or are about to enter, what happened, did this ZJP collapse like this?
But many people wonder: will AMPL collapse? Will AMPL survive? When will you come alive?
Let’s talk about these three questions.
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1. Has AMPL collapsed?
This picture was fermented in various groups, and the panic continued to spread, and the price of AMPL fell all the way. Some people worry that if the price of AMPL falls below $1, it will enter a deflationary "death spiral". Therefore, the price of AMPL at $1 has become the bottom line in many people's minds.
But after all, on July 30, the price of AMPL fell below $0.95, and once fell to $0.612. The daily trading volume of AMPL reached more than $80 million, and a large number of chips were thrown below $1.
At this point, the death spiral that everyone is very worried about has begun.
Next, two questions lie ahead: 1) Can AMPL survive? 2) When to come alive.
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2. Will AMPL survive?
A "ZJP" like AMPL has collapsed. What everyone in the WeChat group cares about is not rights protection, but whether it will survive? Many groups are discussing the deflation mechanism of AMPL and the calculation of deflation ratio.
Of course, the collapse of AMPL is not an unexpected black swan event, but a preset situation at the beginning of the project design. After all, AMPL is an elastic stable currency that can be inflationary or deflationary.
AMPL's medium-term goal is to become the collateral of DeFi, and some DeFi protocols are already investigating using AMPL as collateral, and AMPL is getting closer to the goal step by step.
At the same time, the fundamentals of AMPL are also quite good:
The market value of AMPL ranks among the top ten DeFi tokens, with 18,559 currency-holding addresses (only more than 25,000 for maker, and only 19,472 for compound), and the uniswap liquidity pool has nearly 30 million US dollars, ranking first.
Therefore, it is not a big problem for AMPL to come back to life, but when will it come back to life? It depends on the time.
secondary title3. When will AMPL come alive?
When will AMPL survive? It is estimated that no one can give a ready answer to this question. But we can find some reference data from the past history of AMPL.
In the history of AMPL, how many times has it experienced a death spiral?
AMPL was launched on July 1, 2019, according to the data published on AMPL’s official website, as shown in the figure below. It can be seen that AMPL has experienced three death spirals, and is now experiencing the fourth.
The price K-line chart displayed on the AMPL official website is the 24-hour volume-price weighted average of AMPL. The fourth death spiral has not been reflected in this chart. For this, please refer to the K-line chart of AMPL on KuCoin, as follows.
AMPL has a flexible supply mechanism, so it is not enough to just look at the price, but also the market value of AMPL. The K-line chart of AMPL’s market value changes is as follows.
Therefore, according to the above chart, the time, duration, and market value of the first three death spirals were counted, as follows:
So here comes the question: the 4th time, the death spiral time: 2020.7.31~? ,continued? God, how much will the market value drop?
