TAMC Research Institute: Funds continue to play games, and the market fluctuates at a high level
Blockchain secondary market report for the 22nd week of 2020
Highlights of this report:
Highlights of this report:
This week's market trend: funds continue to game, the market fluctuates at a high level
This week's market trend: funds continue to game, the market fluctuates at a high level
Exchange trading volume: The average daily trading volume of the exchange fell by 21.47%
Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets fell by 10.36%
Exchange wallet balance: BTC balance increased by 3.88%, USDT balance increased by 1.95%
USDT premium rate: The USDT premium rate narrowed and maintained a positive premium in late trading
Bitcoin Volatility Index: VIX Slightly Up, Market Panic Ebbs
Details of this report:
Summarize
Details of this report:
1. This week's market trend: funds continue to play games, and the market fluctuates at a high level
1. This week's market trend: funds continue to play games, and the market fluctuates at a high level
As of the statistical time of the report (June 1, 2019), the average total market value of global blockchain assets this week was US$256.651 billion, an increase of 1.28% from the same period last week; The mean is down 15.28%.
As of the statistical time of the report, the latest point of the Tokenmania 8-week market index is 2.94%, the latest point of the Tokenmania 32-week market index is 1.68%, and the latest point of the Tokenmania 60-week market index is 3.29%.This week, the market fluctuated upwards, while the market volume continued to fall during the same period, and investor sentiment turned from fear to neutral.
Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania
Figure 1 Changes in the total market value of global blockchain assets in the past three months
Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania
Figure 2 Bitcoin price changes this week
Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania
2. Exchange trading volume:2. Exchange trading volume:
Figure 4 Changes in the historical total daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges
Figure 3 Changes in the total trading volume of the nine major exchanges in the past two weeks
Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania
Figure 4 Changes in the historical total daily trading volume of the nine major exchanges
Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania
Source: Feixiaohao, TokenMania
Nine
Figure 5 LocalBitcoins global trading volume
Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania
Figure 6 LocalBitcoins transaction volume in China
Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania
Figure 7 LocalBitcoins trading volume in Venezuela
Source: Coin.Dance, TokenMania
【Note】:NineBig exchanges refer to Binance, Huobi,OKEX、CoinBase、Poloniex、Bitmex、Bittrex、Bitfinex、Bithumb
Big exchanges refer to Binance, Huobi,
Figure 9 Breakdown of the turnover rate of the top ten assets this week
Figure 8 Changes in the daily average turnover rate of the top ten assets in the past two weeks
Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania
Figure 9 Breakdown of the turnover rate of the top ten assets this week
Source: CoinMarketCap, TokenMania
The top three cumulative turnover rates this week are ETC (1200.40% this week, down 43.30% or 3.48% from last week), LTC (658.57% this week, down 181.10% from last week, or 21.57%) , EOS (571.97% this week, down 201.52% from last week, down 26.05%); the last three in the cumulative turnover rate are ADA (120.85% this week, up 31.13% from last week, up 34.70%), XRP (125.76% this week, down 17.32% from last week, down 12.10%), BTC (133.75% this week, down 12.62% from last week, down 8.62%).
[Note] The turnover rate is the daily average of the top ten currencies (BTC, ETH, XRP, XLM, BCH, EOS, LTC, ADA, ETC, DASH).
[Note] The turnover rate is the daily average of the top ten currencies (BTC, ETH, XRP, XLM, BCH, EOS, LTC, ADA, ETC, DASH).
This week, the exchange’s BTC wallet balance was 2,481,096 BTC, an increase of 3.88%; the exchange’s USDT balance was 2,911.26 million USDT, an increase of 1.95%; Increased by 1.56% over the same period last week。
Figure 10 Recent exchange BTC balance and BTC price trend
Source: TokenMania
Figure 11 Changes in the total USDT balance of the exchange
Source: TokenMania
[Note] Exchange wallet balances are comprehensive data covering Binance, Bitfinex, OKEX and other mainstream exchanges.
5.Figure 12 Kraken USDT/USD trading pair price
The off-market premium rate reflects the premium level of off-market prices, and is also a tool to capture the sentiment of off-market funds. Generally speaking, a high premium rate means that the sentiment of off-market funds entering the market is positive, and vice versa. High, even the funds are fleeing; the market premium rate reflects the premium level of the market price, and is also a tool to capture the sentiment of funds in the market.
Figure 12 Kraken USDT/USD trading pair price
Source: Tradingview (Kraken), TokenMania
means USDT
【Note】USDTThe discount premium index is 100When it means USDTParity, index greater than 100means USDTPremium, less than 100means USDTDiscount.
6. Figure 14 Fear & Greed Index
Generally speaking, the Bitcoin price volatility index can be used to measure the degree of panic in the market, and the higher the value, the higher the degree of divergence in the market outlook.
Figure 13 Bitcoin BVOL24H volatility at daily level
Source: BitMEX, TokenMania
Figure 14 Fear & Greed Index
Source: Alternative.me, TokenMania
This week, the Bitcoin Volatility Index remained within a narrow range, rising slightly from last week. The opening value was 1.97, the highest value was 3.73, the lowest value was 1.78, and the closing value was 2.55. The closing value was 29.44% higher than that of the same period last week; It is 43 points, the highest this week is 51 points, and the lowest is 39 points. The sentiment is fear, and the latest point of the Fear & Greed Index is 51 points, an increase of 8 points from 43 points in the same period last week. As the market price picks up, investor sentiment changes from fear to neutral.
7. Futures contracts: short-term futures premiums are transferred to discounts, and the market's long-short expectations switch frequently
7. Futures contracts: short-term futures premiums are transferred to discounts, and the market's long-short expectations switch frequentlyBXBT
Figure 15 Bitcoin futures and spot price trends in the past two weeks
Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania
Figure 16 Bitcoin futures premium and discount rate in the past two weeks
Source: OKEX, BitMEX, TokenMania
[Note] The futures premium and discount rate in the report is based on BitMEXBXBTSpot data for calculation
From the perspective of asset allocation, digital currency is worthy of partial allocation as an alternative asset.For investors, the differentiated return on assets of various assets reflects the importance of asset allocation. According to investment needs, funds are allocated among different asset classes. With the diversification of asset classes, a wider investment portfolio can usually bring higher long-term returns under the same risk conditions.
For investors, the differentiated return on assets of various assets reflects the importance of asset allocation. According to investment needs, funds are allocated among different asset classes. With the diversification of asset classes, a wider investment portfolio can usually bring higher long-term returns under the same risk conditions.Figure 17 Comparison of dynamic return rates of various assets this week
Figure 17 Comparison of dynamic return rates of various assets this week
Source: TokenMania
Among all kinds of assets, the market value of digital currency fluctuates the most. During the process of bubble expansion and bubble burst, the price of digital currency tends to show a trend of skyrocketing and plummeting. Since 2020, the market has been affected by the liquidity crisis brought about by the global epidemic. Bitcoin has experienced a sharp correction. The market has picked up recently, but in the long run it is still at a relatively low valuation. With the squeeze out of the bubble, digital currency is worth Partially allocated as an alternative asset.
Figure 18 Comparison of Dynamic Return Rates of Various Assets in the Past Three Years
Source: TokenMania
Among all kinds of assets, the market value of digital currency fluctuates the most. During the process of bubble expansion and bubble burst, the price of digital currency tends to show a trend of skyrocketing and plummeting. Since 2020, the market has been affected by the liquidity crisis brought about by the global epidemic. Bitcoin has experienced a sharp correction. The market has picked up recently, but in the long run it is still at a relatively low valuation. With the squeeze out of the bubble, digital currency is worth Partially allocated as an alternative asset.
9. Summary
9. SummaryMarket trend: This week, the market fluctuated upwards, while the market volume continued to fall during the same period, and investor sentiment turned from fear to neutral.
At the beginning of the week, the market continued the previous trend and fluctuated weakly around 250 billion U.S. dollars. After two days of consolidation at the bottom, it fluctuated upwards and entered an upward channel on Wednesday, breaking through the 260 billion and 270 billion U.S. dollar integers one after another. Ethereum and Bitcoin led the market. billion, and then fell back under pressure, and closed above $270 billion in late trading. The daily average value of the total market value rose by 1.28% from last week. In the external market, all kinds of risk assets generally closed in red in May. This week, the global major markets generally performed stably. Among them, the US stocks and Bitcoin rose first, and the price of gold closed slightly higher.
From the perspective of the disk, the current incremental funds are mainly distributed in Bitcoin and Ethereum. The balance of USDT on the exchange continues to increase. The total amount of USDT in circulation increased by more than 1.5% this week. The short-term market indicators and investor sentiment have improved compared with the previous period. , this week, the price of Bitcoin has risen step by step, the highest reached below $9,800 and then the rise was blocked, and it failed to continue to break through. During the current round of Bitcoin’s rise, the market did not have much chasing funds, and the overall market transaction activity declined slightly. The usdt premium rate remained The low level, considering that around $10,000 is a severe chip pressure level, several rounds of tentative steps back at the bottom of the $9,300 support during the same period is effective, short-term long-short kinetic energy is basically flat, the current volume can hardly achieve an effective breakthrough, and the probability of a unilateral market is low, or The range consolidation will be maintained. If the high level does not break for a long time, you need to pay attention to the risk of a callback.Exchange trading volume: The average daily trading volume of the exchange fell by 21.47%.
The cumulative total turnover of the nine major exchanges this week was 1,009.066 billion yuan, a decrease of 275.919 billion yuan or 21.47% from last week. The average daily turnover of the nine major exchanges this week was 144.152 billion yuan, a decrease from last week 39.417 billion yuan, a decrease of 21.47%. From the perspective of trading volume structure, the top three exchanges with trading volume are Huobi (42.45%), Binance (23.53%), and OKEX (22.80%). The trading volume accounted for 88.78% of the total trading volume of the nine major exchanges, and the top three accounted for an increase of 0.22% compared with last week; Huobi’s cumulative trading volume this week decreased by 143.716 billion yuan compared with last week, a drop of 25.12%, and Binance’s cumulative trading volume this week decreased by 25.12%. The volume decreased by 43.315 billion yuan or 15.43% compared with last week, and the cumulative trading volume of OKEX this week decreased by 55.116 billion yuan or 19.33% compared with last week.
The global Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 3.28% to 37.298 million US dollars, the Chinese Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 13.92% to 10.329 million yuan, and the Venezuelan Bitcoin OTC transaction volume decreased by 2.26% to 815.42 billion Bolivars. Based on the exchange rate between Bolivar and RMB (1 CNY = 27731.51VES), the off-exchange BTC transaction volume in the last week was about 29.40426 million yuan; A decrease of 4.59% in the previous week.Digital asset turnover rate: The cumulative turnover rate of the top ten digital assets fell by 10.36%.
This week, the turnover rate of the top ten digital assets accumulated 440.36%, a decrease of 50.90% or 10.36% from last week; the highest turnover rate was 68.02%, the lowest was 58.58%, and the extreme value difference was 9.43 percentage points, of which EOS fell the most First, the turnover rate fell by 26.05%. The top three cumulative turnover rates this week are ETC (1200.40% this week, down 43.30% or 3.48% from last week), LTC (658.57% this week, down 181.10% from last week, or 21.57%) , EOS (571.97% this week, down 201.52% from last week, down 26.05%); the last three in the cumulative turnover rate are ADA (120.85% this week, up 31.13% from last week, up 34.70%), XRP (125.76% this week, down 17.32% from last week, down 12.10%), BTC (133.75% this week, down 12.62% from last week, down 8.62%).Exchange wallet balance: BTC balance increased by 3.88%, and USDT balance increased by 1.95%.
This week, the exchange’s BTC wallet balance was 2,481,096 BTC, an increase of 3.88%; the exchange’s USDT balance was 2,911.26 million USDT, an increase of 1.9461%; This was an increase of 1.56% over the same period last week.USDT premium rate: The USDT premium rate narrowed and remained positive in late trading.
This week, the USDT premium rate fluctuated at a low level within a narrow range, and it rebounded slightly from last week. The usdt/usd trading pair on the kraken exchange opened at a premium of 0.01%, with a maximum premium of 0.60%, a minimum premium of -0.10%, and a closing premium of 0.02%. This week, the USDT premium rate ended the previous decline and basically returned to a positive premium. The funds tended to be stable, but the premium level was still in a low range overall.Bitcoin Volatility Index: The volatility index rose slightly, and the market panic subsided.
This week, the Bitcoin Volatility Index remained within a narrow range, rising slightly from last week. The opening value was 1.97, the highest value was 3.73, the lowest value was 1.78, and the closing value was 2.55. The closing value was 29.44% higher than that of the same period last week; It is 43 points, the highest this week is 51 points, and the lowest is 39 points. The sentiment is fear, and the latest point of the Fear & Greed Index is 51 points, an increase of 8 points from 43 points in the same period last week. As the market price picks up, investor sentiment changes from fear to neutral.Futures contracts: The prices of forward contracts with different maturities fluctuated and rose this week, basically below the spot price, and remained at a discount in late trading.
This week, Bakkt's bitcoin-settled contract trading volume exceeded cash-settled contracts. During the same period, the CME bitcoin option trading volume once exceeded $60 million, and the open interest once climbed to more than 250 million U.S. dollars to hit a new high. The daily trading volume of CME bitcoin futures contracts $483 million. From the perspective of the term structure, the average discount of OKEX’s weekly contracts this week was 0.28%, and the discount rate increased by 0.27 percentage points; the contract price of the next week changed from premium to discount, with an average discount of 0.30%; The average discount is 0.05%; the average discount for BitMEX perpetual contracts is 0.03%. The latest price of OKEX’s weekly contracts has changed from premium to discount, with the latest discount of 1.40%; the latest discount of quarterly contract prices is 0.82%; the latest premium of BitMEX perpetual contracts is 0.01%. As of the statistical time of the report, the 24-hour long-short ratio of BITMEX BTC / USD margin market is 50.51%:49.49%, and the bulls are relatively dominant. At present, the overall basis difference of Bitcoin futures has increased. It is recommended that investors pay attention to risks and strictly control positions, optimize platforms, and prevent liquidation caused by pin insertion and platform downtime.The information, opinions and speculations contained in this report only reflect the judgment of the researchers on the date of finalizing this report. In the future, based on industry changes and updates of data information, there is a possibility of updating opinions and judgments.
risk warning
Price correction risk
Regulatory policies at home and abroad exceed expectations
Changes in the international geo-environment exceed expectations
The risk of further spread of the epidemic
Bitcoin contract price fluctuations
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