BIT Investment Research: Why Are Stocks at Record Highs While Gold and Bitcoin Are Falling?
- Core Insight: Since the beginning of 2025, the market has been alternately dominated by three major macro catalysts: Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, geopolitical conflicts, and the AI investment boom. This has led to a significant divergence in the performance of the S&P 500, gold, and Bitcoin. Bitcoin is currently approaching a cyclical bottom, and it is expected that after September, a warming macro environment will once again drive the upward movement of related assets.
- Key Factors:
- Significant Asset Divergence: The S&P 500 is up 9%, gold is down 6%, and Bitcoin is down 31%. The three traditionally correlated assets have decoupled in performance.
- Fed Policy Pressure: Expectations for interest rate cuts have completely reversed. The hawkish stance at the June FOMC meeting has pressured liquidity-sensitive assets like gold and Bitcoin.
- Geopolitical Conflict Impact: The US and Israel's strike on Iran triggered a surge in oil prices, with Bitcoin falling to $60,000, breaking traditional safe-haven patterns.
- AI Narrative as the Main Theme: Anthropic's annual revenue exceeded $30 billion, and NVIDIA invested in Marvell, driving a significant rally in the Nasdaq index.
- Slowing Trading Momentum: After June, enterprises began focusing on AI costs, and Chinese open-source models entered the market. Bitcoin fell back to $63,000 due to CPI exceeding expectations in May.
The market is currently in a repricing phase driven by multiple overlapping macroeconomic catalysts. So far this year, the S&P 500 has risen 9%, gold has fallen 6%, and Bitcoin has dropped 31%, showing a clear divergence among three asset classes that traditionally exhibit some correlation. Factors such as Federal Reserve policy expectations, geopolitical conflicts, and AI infrastructure investment have successively dominated the market narrative, constantly reshaping the pricing logic of risk assets.
As it stands, asset performance is no longer determined by a single factor but is instead constantly repricing around new catalysts at different stages. This has shifted from the Fed's hawkish stance, to the escalation of the Iran conflict, and then to the AI infrastructure investment boom.
Fed and War Dominate the Market: Liquidity Expectations Weigh on Risk Assets
Since the beginning of the year, the biggest change in the market has come from a reversal in expectations for Federal Reserve policy. After Trump nominated Kevin Warsh, the market began to re-price a more hawkish monetary policy, completely reversing expectations for three rate cuts this year. Subsequently, the June FOMC meeting further confirmed the hawkish stance, continuing to put pressure on liquidity-sensitive assets like gold and Bitcoin.
At the same time, the U.S. and Israel launched military strikes against Iran, causing disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, rising oil prices, and a stock market downturn. Gold also fell, as the market speculated that central banks in the Middle East might prioritize funds for reconstruction financing rather than continuing to increase gold holdings; Bitcoin also fell to $60,000 at one point under significant liquidation pressure, breaking its previous performance pattern during geopolitical conflicts.
AI Narrative Takes the Baton: From Infrastructure Boom to Slowing Trading Momentum
As the conflict cooled, market focus quickly shifted to AI infrastructure construction. NVIDIA announced a $2 billion investment in Marvell Technology, and Anthropic's annual recurring revenue (ARR) surpassed $30 billion, exceeding OpenAI's previously disclosed $20 billion ARR. This propelled the relevant Nasdaq index from 23,200 points to 30,500 points, establishing AI as the new main market theme.
However, entering June, the momentum of AI trading began to wane. "Tokenmaxxing" gradually faded, with companies starting to pay more attention to token usage costs. Open-source models from China accelerated their entry into the market, OpenAI postponed its IPO to 2027, and Meta planned to sell surplus AI computing power, leading the market to reassess AI investment returns. Concurrently, the U.S. May CPI rose from 3.3% to 3.8%, higher than market expectations. Bitcoin ETFs saw significant net outflows, shedding $9 billion worth of Bitcoin; the price of Bitcoin retreated from $82,000 back to around $63,000, once again demonstrating its high sensitivity to inflation and Fed policy expectations.
Overall, the market has experienced a shift among three core catalysts this year: Fed policy, geopolitics, and the AI narrative, which has driven a clear divergence between stocks, gold, and Bitcoin. Looking ahead, we believe the Fed's hawkish stance is likely to gradually reverse after the summer. Gold has entered a technically oversold area, and Bitcoin is approaching its cyclical bottom target range of $50,000 to $55,000. With the September FOMC meeting approaching, a recovery in AI usage demand, and cooling inflation expectations, gold, Bitcoin, and AI-related trades are all expected to regain upward momentum.
The above views are partly based on BIT on Target, contact us for the full BIT on Target report.
Disclaimer: Markets are risky, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading can involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after carefully considering personal circumstances and consulting with financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.
