BTC 跌破 60,000 美元後，還能衝上 10 萬美元嗎？

Bitcoin has just emerged from its toughest period since 2026, with a cumulative decline of approximately 30% in the first half of the year. It could be set for a second consecutive quarterly loss, a scenario that has only occurred twice before in Bitcoin's history.

BTC fell from around $65,800 at the start of June to below $60,000 as July began. The decline was characterized by a slow grind lower throughout most of the month, rather than a single-day crash.

However, amidst this downturn, Standard Chartered did something rather unusual.

Instead of lowering its Bitcoin price forecast for the third time this year, the bank maintained its year-end target of $100,000, with its lead analyst even describing the drop as a buying opportunity rather than a warning signal.

This contrast—prices falling while a major bank refuses to waver—is central to this Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction for July 2026.

Below, we break down the signals currently being sent by Standard Chartered, Bernstein, and ETF flow data, and outline key price levels to watch for the remainder of the month.

Key Takeaways

• As of July 1, 2026, Bitcoin is trading near $59,000, down approximately 30% year-to-date.
• Despite BTC falling below $60,000, Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick maintains his year-end 2026 target of $100,000, calling the pullback a buying opportunity.
• Bernstein sticks with its more optimistic 2026 target of $150,000, a view it last reaffirmed on March 24, 2026.
• Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $4.06 billion in June 2026, the largest single-month redemption since the funds launched in January 2024.
• This outflow is the third such cycle in 2026, following similar reversals in February and April. This pattern is as noteworthy as any single price target.
• Support roughly holds around the $58,000 level; a move back above ~$65,800 would signal that the downtrend may be ending.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction July 2026: Standard Chartered Refuses to Abandon the $100k Target

Entering July, one of the most watched Bitcoin price forecasts comes from Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick, the bank's Head of Digital Assets Research.

Even with the recent price dip below $60,000, he maintains his year-end BTC target of $100,000, and his reasoning goes beyond vague optimism.

The $300,000 Bitcoin Prediction: How It Was First Halved, Then Cut Again

Before directly considering the $100,000 figure, it's important to understand that this target has survived two rounds of downward revisions this year.

Standard Chartered began 2026 with a bolder $150,000 forecast, which itself was a significant reduction from its even more aggressive $300,000 prediction made in 2025.

Kendrick's original logic rested on two independent demand pillars: steady corporate treasury buying, pioneered by Strategy, and accelerating spot Bitcoin ETF inflows.

When corporate treasury buying noticeably slowed late last year, the bank lowered its target to $150,000, stating that future gains would effectively depend solely on ETF buying.

Then, in February 2026, as ETF outflows accumulated early in the year, Kendrick cut the target again to $100,000, while warning Bitcoin could fall toward $50,000 before a true recovery.

So, when this July 2026 Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction discusses Standard Chartered's view, it's crucial to know this number has already been tested by two market downturns and has not yet required a third adjustment.

Standard Chartered Calls This Crash a Gift, Not a Warning

Kendrick's rationale for maintaining his target during the June sell-off is quite specific, rather than just general bullishness.

He attributes the decline specifically to Bitcoin ETF outflows, forced liquidations related to excessive leverage positions, and a small-scale liquidation by a corporate holder—not a fundamental shift in Bitcoin's underlying demand.

In his view, this combination of factors represents a temporary setback rather than the start of a prolonged bear market; he has publicly framed the dip below $60,000 as a buying opportunity.

Standard Chartered's longer-term outlook also remains largely unchanged. The bank still expects Bitcoin to reach $500,000 by 2030, just with a slower realization path than initially envisioned.

Where Bitcoin Stands, and Why It Just Experienced its Worst Month of 2026

According to CoinMarketCap data, as of July 1, 2026, Bitcoin trades at just under $59,500.

Based on CoinGecko historical price data, this means BTC is down over 50% from its all-time high of $126,080 reached in October 2025.

The picture becomes clearer if we zoom in on the past month alone.

BTC opened June near $65,800 and steadily moved lower throughout the month. Multiple ETF flow reports show Bitcoin prices hovering mostly in the $58,000 to $60,000 range during June, closing nearer to $59,000 as July began.

The primary driver of this decline wasn't Bitcoin-specific scandal or a new regulatory shock, but a wave of redemptions from spot Bitcoin ETFs.

June was the worst month for ETF outflows since these products launched in the US in January 2024, continuing a redemption trend that began in mid-May.

Some context is also necessary here: according to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, cumulative net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs since their 2024 launch still stand at around $55 billion. While 2026 flows turned negative for the year due to the May and June outflow surge, this looks more like a difficult adjustment than a wholesale institutional exit.

Coupled with a broad decline in risk appetite across financial markets, with investors worried the Fed might keep rates higher for longer, BTC had little support to lean on for most of June.

None of this means Bitcoin's long-term trajectory has changed, but it does explain why so many traders are now eager for a clear Bitcoin price prediction, rather than just silently staring at the charts.

Bull Case vs. Bear Case: How High or Low BTC Could Go Next

Not all Wall Street institutions are as cautious as Standard Chartered.

Bernstein actually moved in the opposite direction this year, raising its 2026 Bitcoin price target to $150,000, calling the 2026 downturn one of the mildest bear market scenarios in Bitcoin's history. The firm last reaffirmed this view on March 24, 2026, arguing that this time lacks the systemic failures common in past crypto winters.

Bernstein analysts, led by Gautam Chhugani, believe Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle tied to halving schedules may be breaking down, replaced by a longer, institution-led bull run. They predict a potential cycle peak near $200,000 in 2027, with a long-term target of around $1 million by approximately 2033.

Zooming out even further, ARK Invest's own research, in its base case scenario, estimates Bitcoin's market cap at roughly $16 trillion by 2030. Based on current supply, this equates to roughly $750,000 to $800,000 per Bitcoin, driven primarily by what the firm describes as Bitcoin's expanding role as digital gold and adoption at the institutional and sovereign level.

Simply put, the bull case involves a short-term range of $100,000 to $150,000 by year-end, followed by much higher numbers later this decade.

The bear case, however, relies more on the charts themselves than any single analyst's model.

Support roughly holds in the $58,000 to $60,000 range, consistent with where Bitcoin prices traded for most of June according to multiple ETF flow reports.

A confirmed break below this range could see the price move toward $55,000; conversely, a reclaim of the ~$65,800 level where Bitcoin started June would be the clearest sign yet that the downtrend may be over.

In essence, this July 2026 Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction isn't about one single number, but a range: a downside anchor near $55,000 and an upside potentially reaching $150,000 or more, depending on which set of analysts you find more convincing.

Why Two Banks Looking at the Same Bitcoin Chart Can Differ by $50,000

For newcomers to crypto, it can be confusing that two major banks looking at the same Bitcoin chart can arrive at conclusions differing by $50,000 for the December price.

This gap usually depends on which piece of the puzzle each analyst weighs most heavily.

Standard Chartered's model is highly dependent on ETF flow data, as Kendrick has stated that, after corporate treasury buying slowed, future Bitcoin price increases will effectively depend on this single channel.

Bernstein's model, on the other hand, places more weight on the idea that Bitcoin's historical four-year bull-bear cycle tied to halving schedules is no longer relevant now that institutions, rather than retail, drive most buying and selling.

Neither framework is necessarily wrong; they just measure different signals. This is precisely why this July 2026 Bitcoin price prediction references multiple sources instead of picking one number and presenting it as a definitive answer.

MEXC Analysis: The Real Bitcoin Signal Wall Street Keeps Ignoring

Looking at this year's competing Bitcoin price predictions together, MEXC's view is that the specific dollar figures might be less important than the pattern emerging behind them.

In fact, this is the third time in 2026 that Bitcoin ETFs have experienced a sharp outflow cycle followed by a sudden, relatively swift reversal.

The first cycle occurred in January and February, when billions flowed out over several weeks, only to snap back quickly in the final days of February thanks to a return of institutional buying.

The second cycle appeared in April. According to ETF flow tracking data, Bitcoin ETFs attracted approximately $2.4 billion in inflows that month, one of the strongest single months since Bitcoin's October 2025 high.

The third cycle is the one that just ended, with 13 consecutive days of outflows from May 15 to June 3, pulling roughly $4.4 billion from the funds. After a brief respite in early June, high inflation data released on June 25 reignited outflows, pushing June to $4.06 billion in net outflows, the largest single-month redemption since these products launched in January 2024.

Holdings data compiled by Galaxy Research adds an interesting dimension to these outflows.

The selling came primarily from hedge funds and broker-dealers. Hedge funds cut their Bitcoin ETF holdings by roughly 31,400 BTC, a 39% reduction. Broker-dealers reduced their positions by about 18,800 BTC, a 53% decline, with Jane Street alone accounting for roughly 10,800 BTC of that reduction.

Morgan Stanley closed its entire position of approximately 8,300 BTC, but this move was related to its launch of a proprietary Bitcoin fund, not a loss of confidence in Bitcoin itself.

Banks, on the other hand, moved in the opposite direction. JPMorgan increased its holdings by about 3,000 BTC, and Wells Fargo added roughly 4,000 BTC. During the same period, the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund Mubadala also purchased over 1,100 BTC.

Overall, this is not a uniform institutional retreat, but rather one class of investors selling while another class is quietly buying. For Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction purposes, this divergence is more significant than headline outflow numbers alone.

If the pattern of three cycles seen earlier this year continues to hold, traders might be better off tracking something other than which analyst's price target ends up closest to reality.

The real point of interest is whether new inflows will return with the same strength as in April, or whether the current outflow wave will extend into a fourth leg of decline before year-end.

More than any single number in this July 2026 Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction, this is the most important short-term signal to watch for the rest of the month.

FAQ

What is the Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction for July 2026?

Based on views from Standard Chartered and Bernstein, most Wall Street forecasts roughly converge on a downside of $58,000 and a year-end range between $100,000 and $150,000.

Has Bitcoin bottomed out in 2026?

No one can be certain, but the $58,000 to $59,000 range has held as support through multiple sell-offs so far this year.

What is Standard Chartered's Bitcoin price prediction?

Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick has a year-end 2026 target of $100,000, down from his previous $150,000 forecast, but unchanged since February.

What caused the Bitcoin price crash in June 2026?

Record monthly outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, combined with broad market fears that interest rates would stay higher for longer, drove most of the decline.

Will Bitcoin price recover in 2026?

Both Standard Chartered and Bernstein still expect Bitcoin to recover by year-end, although they disagree significantly on how high BTC can go.

Is it possible for Bitcoin to reach $1 million?

Only in the most optimistic long-term models, such as ARK Invest's 2030 scenario; it is not a short-term target for 2026.

Conclusion

The prospect for Bitcoin in the remaining time of July essentially comes down to a tug-of-war between two forces: a month of heavy ETF selling pressure on one side, and several major banks currently refusing to abandon their bullish targets for the year on the other.

Standard Chartered's $100,000 prediction and Bernstein's $150,000 prediction sit on opposite ends of the recovery speed spectrum, but neither institution has abandoned the view that BTC will end 2026 significantly higher than its early July level.

Regardless of which number ends up closer to reality, the truly important variable to watch between now and year-end is the *speed* of ETF inflows, not the most eye-catching target price from any single analyst.

For traders who prefer tracking Bitcoin's current price in real-time rather than waiting for the next market headline, MEXC's BTC real-time price page updates continuously throughout the day.