BitMart研究院每週熱點：ETF持續流出+AI虹吸，加密市場震盪尋底

I. Macro Economy & Traditional Financial Markets

1. AI Narrative Strengthens: Anthropic Confidential Filing, Alphabet Ramps Up, Tech Stocks Hit New Highs

Major US stock indices continued their upward momentum this week, maintaining a strong trend. The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.19%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 1.13%, and the S&P 500 gained 0.81%, accumulating a ~16% rise since April and posting nine consecutive weeks of gains, its longest winning streak since 2023. AI remains the core driving force, with chip and storage sectors leading the rally, as the narrative of an AI infrastructure "arms race" continues to receive positive feedback from capital markets.

The most iconic event this week was Anthropic officially filing a confidential S-1 registration with the SEC on June 1st. The company is targeting a valuation of approximately $965 billion, with a potential IPO fundraising size of up to $75 billion. If successfully listed, it could become one of the largest IPOs in history. Concurrently, Alphabet announced a massive new AI infrastructure financing plan totaling $80 billion, with Berkshire Hathaway participating in $10 billion. These signals further strengthened market pricing expectations for the long-term expansion space of AI infrastructure. However, the potential liquidity absorption effect of the Anthropic IPO has also begun to attract market attention. Although the company's annualized revenue has surpassed $47 billion, it is still in a high-growth phase, and its current valuation essentially relies on deeply discounting future AI application layer earnings. If the market capitalization verification post-listing falls short of expectations, or if it competes for public market liquidity simultaneously with SpaceX, the correction pressure on AI tech stocks will significantly intensify.

2. Geopolitics: US-Israel Military Actions Heat Up, US-Iran Negotiation Window Persists, Energy Prices Face New Pressure

Geopolitical developments diverged this week. On one hand, Trump stated that US-Iran negotiations were progressing smoothly, with discussions on extending the ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz continuing, leading to a periodic narrowing of tail-risk expectations regarding a full-scale Middle East conflict. On the other hand, Israel announced an expansion of ground operations in Lebanon. Joint US-Israeli military actions triggered a new round of regional tensions, pushing Brent crude oil up about 1.3% to nearly $93 per barrel. Energy market volatility reflects the current contradictions in macro pricing: the AI-driven tech investment boom has reduced market concerns about a recession, but unstable energy supply, sticky core inflation, and the second estimate of US Q1 GDP being revised down to an annualized 2.5% still leave the Federal Reserve with insufficient room to cut rates. Copper prices also rose further as US tariff reviews approach, with Goldman Sachs and Citigroup successively raising their full-year price targets.

3. New Fed Framework & Rate Expectations: Warsh Takes Office, June FOMC Window Opens

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh was officially sworn in on May 22nd. The market views the June 17th FOMC meeting he presides over as a key node for H2 macro pricing. According to the latest CME FedWatch data, the market prices a 99.4% probability of the Fed maintaining current rates in June and a 93.0% probability in July, indicating extremely limited expectations for near-term rate cuts. US Treasury yields have remained high recently, effectively imposing a macro-financial environment equivalent to a "stealth rate hike" of about 75 basis points in terms of actual implementation, implicitly suppressing risk asset valuations. Last week, the US dollar index fell to 98.942, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.437%, and gold settled at $4,538, reflecting market pricing for a combination of "prolonged high rates + rising safe-haven demand." The May non-farm payrolls report to be released this week will be a key variable in verifying the Fed's subsequent policy path.

Additionally, the Japanese yen continued to weaken, falling 1.7% in May alone, approaching the critical 160 level. The Japanese Ministry of Finance has spent approximately $7.36 billion on intervention in the past month, but bearish bets on the yen by leveraged funds have risen to their highest level since July 2024. If the Bank of Japan delivers a larger-than-expected rate hike at its June 16th meeting, the unwinding of global carry trades could marginally tighten liquidity, potentially suppressing both tech stocks and crypto assets.

II. Crypto Market

1. Market Snapshot: BTC Drops ~6% for the Week, ETF Sees Record Consecutive Net Outflows

The crypto market continued its correction overall this week, diverging significantly from record highs in US stocks. BTC opened the week around $77,267 and fell to approximately $72,675 by June 1st, a weekly decline of about 6%. ETH dropped ~4.5% concurrently, with the ETH/BTC ratio remaining largely flat, indicating similar pressure on capital for both assets, rather than a specific weakness in ETH. ETF fund pressure was particularly prominent. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their longest streak of consecutive net outflows since their launch in January 2024, with net outflows for nine consecutive trading days totaling approximately $2.8 billion. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT saw its second-largest single-day net outflow of about $528 million. Ethereum spot ETFs also experienced net outflows for 13 consecutive days, totaling approximately $694 million. The market Fear & Greed Index fell further from 39 last week to 29, entering the "Fear" zone.

In derivatives, BTC open interest declined simultaneously with the price drop. Deribit's options skew rose back to around 16%, with Put option premiums nearing extreme levels for the period, indicating a significant rise in hedging demand. The total stablecoin market cap decreased by approximately $2.758 billion over the past 7 days, reflecting continued weakness in on-chain spot purchasing power. Overall, the crypto market lacks independent incremental capital drivers and remains suppressed by institutional funds flowing towards AI tech assets.

2. RWA & On-Chain US Stocks: DTCC Connects to Stellar

On May 27th, DTC, a subsidiary of DTCC, announced plans to integrate its tokenized asset services with the Stellar blockchain, targeting a launch in the first half of 2027. This will cover the tokenized issuance, corporate action processing, and cross-chain interoperability of blue-chip stocks, ETFs, and US Treasuries. DTCC processes approximately $4.7 quadrillion in securities transactions annually. Its integration with Stellar signifies that tokenized equities are officially entering the core US securities settlement infrastructure, rather than remaining within proprietary on-chain issuance layers. Affected by this news, XLM surged over 30% on the day, with 24-hour trading volume spiking more than 9x.

3. Long-Term Perspective: MicroStrategy Pauses BTC Purchases; Anthropic IPO Could Be Liquidity Inflection Point

MicroStrategy's activities this week are noteworthy. The company sold a small amount of 32 BTC between May 26th and 31st to pay preferred stock dividends, while also pausing its ATM (at-the-market) issuance mechanism used to fund BTC purchases. Its current holdings stand at approximately 843,700 BTC. The company's strategy has shifted towards debt management, planning to prioritize the repurchase of about $1.5 billion of its zero-coupon convertible notes maturing in 2029, thus temporarily halting BTC purchases. As a significant incremental buyer in the crypto market over the past two years, MicroStrategy's slowed pace implies reduced short-term support.

From a broader macro perspective, Anthropic officially filed its S-1 on June 1st, and SpaceX is also progressing towards a massive IPO. The combined potential fundraising size of these two could exceed $100 billion. Historically, mega-IPOs often create a significant liquidity absorption effect on secondary markets in the short term. As high-beta risk assets, both AI tech stocks and crypto assets will face pressure from funds being temporarily diverted. Overall, the largest macro headwind for crypto currently stems from the continuous strengthening of the AI landscape. Against the backdrop of high-valuation tech assets like Anthropic and SpaceX successively hitting the public markets for liquidity, the window for crypto to strengthen independently remains limited. If the AI bubble undergoes a phased correction in the future, BTC might experience a significant adjustment concurrently. However, this very window could conversely become the opportunity for the formation of the bottom area of a new crypto cycle.

This article is a market analysis only and does not constitute any investment advice. Investment carries high risk. Please fully assess your own risk tolerance and strictly implement risk management before trading.