“囤币神话”終結，Strategy 3年來首次賣出BTC

Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author｜Wenser (@wenser 2010 )

"The first DAT stock," the "biggest BTC diamond hand" Strategy has started selling coins! According to Strategy's disclosure, it sold 32 Bitcoins at an average price of $77,135 last week, generating $2.5 million.

Possibly influenced by this news, BTC fell below $71,000 last night and is currently trading around $70,560; US stock markets closed lower for crypto-related stocks, with Bullish down 7.99%, DeFi Development down 7.97%, Circle down 7.11%, Strategy down 5.85%, and Upexi down 5.04%.

Strategy's move to stop buying BTC and make a small sale has exacerbated the already liquidity-tight crypto market. As major CEXs compete for US stock trading, the crypto market continues to bleed.

Strategy Selling Coins: Not the First Time, But This Time is Different

This sale of BTC is not the first sale in Strategy's history.

In 2022, following the collapse of the then-second-largest crypto exchange FTX, the crypto industry entered a deep winter, and BTC briefly fell below $20,000. On December 22, 2022, Strategy sold 704 BTC at $16,776, and quickly repurchased 810 BTC at $16,845 on December 24, 2022.

Strategy's current sale is primarily to repay dividends on STRC financing.

As a fixed-income digital credit product launched by Strategy, STRC is considered its flagship product. However, after repurchasing $1.5 billion in convertible debt last month, Strategy's cash reserves have fallen to approximately $871 million, covering only about 6 months of its estimated $1.7 billion annual preferred dividend obligations. On May 29, STRC briefly fell to $97.11, before recovering and closing at $98.57.

Strategy stated in its Q1 earnings report released in early May: "If convertible notes mature or are redeemed without conversion into common stock, the company may need to sell common stock or Bitcoin to generate sufficient cash to meet these obligations." At that time, Strategy's Q1 earnings report recorded a net loss of $12.54 billion, almost entirely from unrealized losses on BTC ($14.46 billion). As of the end of Q1, the total cost basis for 818,334 BTC was $61.81 billion, corresponding to an average purchase price of about $75,537 per coin. Recommended reading: "Strategy Q1 Earnings Report: $14.4 Billion Book Loss, Not Ruling Out Selling Coins to Pay Interest"

Of course, from a corporate operations perspective, Strategy's move is understandable, and Michael Saylor previously stated: "Even if we sell 1 BTC, we will buy 10 to 20 times more." Selling is done to buy better. However, from an industry confidence perspective, Strategy's move not only signals a temporary dead end for the "DAT treasury model" but also significantly dampens the crypto industry's enthusiasm for accumulating and buying coins, greatly impacting short-term market sentiment.

After selling these 32 BTC, Strategy currently holds 843,706 BTC, worth $60.936 billion, with an average cost basis of $75,699, resulting in an unrealized loss of $2.932 billion. Last month, thanks to a general market rebound, Strategy's holdings briefly showed an unrealized gain of $8.2 billion.

It's worth noting that on May 28, Strategy founder Michael Saylor published a "HODL" (Hold On for Dear Life) themed article, urging the market to firmly hold Bitcoin amidst the current downturn.

The "Murky Accounts" Behind Strategy's Coin Sale: Polymarket's "If They Didn't Say It, It Didn't Happen" Farce

Beyond the sale itself, the "event determination farce" on the prediction market Polymarket has also been quite amusing.

As we mentioned in the previous article "Strategy Q1 Earnings Report: $14.4 Billion Book Loss, Not Ruling Out Selling Coins to Pay Interest", the probability of "Strategy selling BTC before May 31" was only around 40% at that time.

As May concluded, on June 1, Polymarket data showed that the probability of Strategy selling Bitcoin in May surged from a low of 12% to 80% but then fell back to 58%, with cumulative trading volume exceeding $16.4 million.

Ultimately, the matter was settled with a "No" outcome following a ruling by Polymarket officials. Polymarket stated officially, "We are aware of the dispute regarding this prediction market. If a clarifying announcement is to be issued, it will be released by 1:00 PM Eastern Time on June 1. If no statement is issued by then, it means the Polymarket team will not provide further clarification. Regardless of whether a clarifying statement is released, the order book will be settled at 1:00 PM Eastern Time that day."

Because Strategy did not issue an official statement regarding the sale, the event was ultimately settled as "Strategy did not sell BTC in May." This once again confirms that prediction markets trade not on "the truth of the facts" but on "events defined by the rules."

BTC's "Digital Gold" Narrative Shaken, "Safe Haven" Asset Status Damaged

Following the news of Strategy's coin sale, economist, gold investment advocate, and cryptocurrency critic Peter Schiff commented that "Strategy selling 32 Bitcoins last week" signals the "largest Bitcoin buyer" turning into a seller, questioning the source of new demand.

Billionaire investor Mark Cuban, who previously viewed BTC as a "superior version of gold," also recently stated that he has sold most of his Bitcoin holdings due to waning confidence in Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat currency devaluation and geopolitical risks, expressing clear disappointment with BTC's "digital gold" narrative.

JPMorgan also indicated in a recent analysis that the "devaluation trade" for gold and BTC is heating up, with investors exiting safe-haven assets.

With prices continually falling, perhaps BTC and the crypto market can only wait for the Trump administration to "love crypto once more."